000 AXNT20 KNHC 141728 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST MON FEB 14 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ IS ANALYZED FROM NORTHERN LIBERIA AT 6N11W THROUGH 2N20W AND 01N30W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 37W TO THE NE BRAZIL COAST NEAR 2S44W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF LIBERIA FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 10W-14W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-2N BETWEEN 9W-11W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 16W-21W...AND FROM 5S-2N BETWEEN 30W-38W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF BRAZIL FROM 2S-3N BETWEEN 45W-53W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1027 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 28N88W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER AND LIGHT 5-10 KT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND S MEXICO FROM 21N94W TO 16N94W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH RESIDUAL MORNING FOG ARE FROM 17N-23N BETWEEN 93W-97W. ANOTHER AREA OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS IS S OF LOUISIANA FROM 27N-29N BETWEEN 91W-94W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...NW WINDS PREVAIL WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT...THE SURFACE HIGH TO DISSIPATE AND BE REPLACED BY A SURFACE RIDGE AND MORE FAIR WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... AS OF 1500 UTC...A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM E CUBA TO HONDURAS ALONG 21N75W 19N83W 15N85W. OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS... HONDURAS ...N GUATEMALA...AND BELIZE FROM 14N-19N BETWEEN 84W-90W. MORE BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE OVER E CUBA FROM 20N-22N BETWEEN 75W-80W. OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER HAITI...THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...AND JAMAICA. 20-25 KT NE WINDS ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF THE FRONT WHILE 15-25 KT TRADEWINDS DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN. STRONGEST WINDS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA DUE TO A 1010 MB LOW AT 9N74W THAT IS TIGHTENING THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. PATCHES OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS DOTS THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 67W...AND THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG THE COASTS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 70W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA SUPPRESSING CONVECTION. EXPECT...THE FRONT TO FULLY DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH RESIDUAL SHOWERS OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS...AND MORE SHOWERS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N45W TO THE S BAHAMAS TO E CUBA ALONG 26N60W 21N75W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM N OF FRONT. A 1029 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 28N34W. THE USUAL TRADEWINDS ARE S OF 20N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 70W SUPPORTING THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE VENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 20W-70W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N E OF 20W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR...THE COLD FRONT TO BECOME STATIONARY AND A SECONDARY REINFORCING COLD FRONT TO MOVE E TO 32N58W WITH CONVECTION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MRF/SMM