000 AXNT20 KNHC 141149 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST MON FEB 14 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0830 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ IS ANALYZED FROM NORTHERN LIBERIA AT 6N11W THROUGH 3N20W AND 01N30W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 36W TO THE NE BRAZIL COAST NEAR 3S44W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 10W-22W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 3N BETWEEN 29W-51W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... 1027 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED APPROXIMATELY 150 NM S OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC WIND FIELD ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF. EXCEPTIONS LIE IN THE NW GULF WHERE FRESH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WAS REPORTED AT BOTH BUOY 42020 SE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS AND BUOY 42045 E OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS AT 06Z AND IN THE SW GULF WHERE THE WINDS TURN CYCLONICALLY AROUND A TROUGH OF LOW PRES ALONG 94W S OF 22N. SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING DENSE LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH DRIZZLE AND RAIN S OF 22N BETWEEN 94W-97W. FOG HAS BEEN REPORTED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AT MEXICAN OBSERVATION STATIONS JUST INLAND AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD THROUGH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THIS MORNING AND DISSIPATE. ELSEWHERE...AREAS OF LOW-LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE NOTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE S CENTRAL GULF AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WHILE PATCHY FOG LIES N OF 28N AND W OF 89W. ALOFT...A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WHILE WEAK RIDGING LIES OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A SHARP LINE OF EXTREMELY DRY AIR PUSHING SWD ALONG THIS TROUGH AXIS WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE FOUND BEHIND THE TROUGH WHICH IS FURTHER SUPPORTING THE FAIR WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHWARD...ALLOWING THE UPPER RIDGE TO MOVE IN BEHIND IT AND OVER THE HIGH PRES AT THE SURFACE WHICH WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER THROUGHOUT. CARIBBEAN SEA... A WEAKENING FRONT CONTINUES TO SIT ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM WESTERN CUBA TO NE HONDURAS ALONG 21N76W 19N83W 15N84W. SCATTERED SHOWERS GENERALLY LIE WEST OF THE BOUNDARY SOUTH OF 18N WHILE MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS CAN BE FOUND ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT AS WELL AS OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. TWO OBSERVATION STATIONS IN WESTERN CUBA NEAR THE FRONT CONFIRM THE EXISTENCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS LIE N OF THE FRONT WITH BUOY 42056 APPROXIMATELY 150 NM EAST OF TULUM MEXICO CONTINUING TO REPORT 19 KT AND 7 FT SEAS AT 09Z. THE FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA THAT EXTENDS INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. EXPECT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVER MUCH OF THE NW CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS...WITH JUST THE NORTHERN END OF THE FRONT LINGERING IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE THROUGH TUE. ELSEWHERE...MUCH OF THE BASIN IS UNDER A DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM COLOMBIA TO PUERTO RICO SUPPORTING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE FAR NE CARIBBEAN THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC LATER THIS MORNING...BUT DUE TO THE DRY CONDITIONS IT IS ONLY SUPPORTING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS EAST OF 66W. IT IS REFLECTING A WEAK TROUGH AT THE SURFACE OVER THE MONA PASSAGE. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ALSO LIE NEAR WESTERN PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA UNDER UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ALONG 11N W OF 75W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N47W AND STRETCHES SW WHERE IT BECOMES A STATIONARY NEAR 23N70W TO THE SE BAHAMAS AND INTO WESTERN CUBA. THIS FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 32N63W THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE SYSTEM NEAR 29N68W WHILE THE INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS MULTILAYERED CLOUDINESS AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE SYSTEM WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS FOUND IN MUCH OF THE AREA N OF THE FRONT E OF 65W AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE FRONT W OF 65W. NUMEROUS SHIP OBSERVATIONS SINCE 06Z CONTINUE TO SHOW FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS GENERALLY WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE FRONT. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC WHILE THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT WEAKENS THROUGH EARLY TUE. LIGHTER WINDS ARE FOUND FARTHER NW OF THE FRONT WHERE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES STEMMING FROM A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 32N59W EXTENDS SOUTHWEST TOWARD CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA. SURFACE RIDGING ASSOCIATED WITH A 1028 MB HIGH NEAR 29N34W DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN AND PROVIDES MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND ERN ATLC ALONG WITH FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE TROPICAL ATLC. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS SUPPORTED BY A WIDESPREAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED BY AN ANTICYCLONE NEAR 23N34W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM MAURITANIA SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. BROADLY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT LIES SOUTHWEST OF THIS TROUGH AXIS AND SOUTH OF THE ANTICYCLONE OVER A CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE PORTION OF THE ITCZ PRIMARILY W OF 30W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ SCHAUER