000 AXNT20 KNHC 140549 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST MON FEB 14 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0400 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ IS ANALYZED FROM LIBERIA AT 5N9W THROUGH 2N20W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 26N TO THE NE BRAZIL COAST NEAR 3S42W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 10W-14W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 17W-22W. ISOLATED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 3N TO THE BRAZILIAN COAST BETWEEN 24W-42W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... 1028 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED APPROXIMATELY 90 NM S OF DESTIN FLORIDA IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FIELD ACROSS THE GULF...WITH LIGHT WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WITH THE EXCEPTIONS OF THE NW GULF WHERE FRESH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WAS REPORTED AT BUOY 42020 AT 04Z AND THE SW GULF WHERE THE WINDS TURN CYCLONICALLY AROUND A TROUGH OF LOW PRES ALONG 93W S OF 24N. SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING DENSE LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH RAIN S OF 21N BETWEEN 93W-96W. VILLAHERMOSA MEXICO REPORTED DRIZZLE AS THE TROUGH MOVED THROUGH THE CITY AT 03Z. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD THROUGH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TODAY. ELSEWHERE...AREAS OF LOW-LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE NOTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SE PART OF THE BASIN. ALOFT...A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WHILE WEAK RIDGING LIES OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A SHARP LINE OF EXTREMELY DRY AIR PUSHING SWD ALONG THIS TROUGH AXIS WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE FOUND BEHIND THE TROUGH WHICH IS FURTHER SUPPORTING THE FAIR WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHWARD...ALLOWING THE UPPER RIDGE TO MOVE IN BEHIND IT AND OVER HIGH PRES AT THE SURFACE WHICH WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER THROUGHOUT. CARIBBEAN SEA... A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO SIT ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM WESTERN CUBA TO NE HONDURAS ALONG 21N76W 19N83W 15N84W. SCATTERED SHOWERS GENERALLY LIE WEST OF THE BOUNDARY SOUTH OF 19N WHILE MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS CAN BE FOUND ELSEWHERE W OF THE BOUNDARY...WITHIN 90 NM E OF IT...AND OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. HOLGUIN CUBA REPORTED LIGHT RAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT AT 05Z. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS LIE N OF THE STATIONARY FRONT WITH BUOY 42056 REPORTING 19 KT AND 7 FT SEAS AT 05Z. THE FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA THAT EXTENDS INTO THE SRN GULF OF MEXICO. EXPECT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. MEANWHILE...MUCH OF THE BASIN IS UNDER A DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM COLOMBIA TO HISPANIOLA SUPPORTING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE FAR NE CARIBBEAN THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC LATER THIS MORNING...BUT DUE TO THE DRY CONDITIONS IT IS ONLY SUPPORTING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS EAST OF 65W. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ALSO LIE NEAR WESTERN PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA UNDER UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ALONG 11N W OF 75W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N49W AND STRETCHES SW WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY NEAR 28N60W TO THE SE BAHAMAS AND INTO WESTERN CUBA. THIS SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 32N70W THROUGH SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE SYSTEM NEAR 29N71W WHILE THE INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS MULTILAYERED CLOUDINESS IN THE VICINITY OF THIS SHORTWAVE SYSTEM WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS FOUND IN MUCH OF THE AREA N OF THE FRONT FROM 58W TO 67W AS WELL AS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE FRONT. THE 0144Z ASCAT PASS AND NUMEROUS SHIP OBSERVATIONS SHOW FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS GENERALLY WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE FRONT. EXPECT THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE STALLING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC WHILE THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT WEAKENS. LIGHTER WINDS ARE FOUND FARTHER NW OF THE FRONT WHERE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES STEMMING FROM A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR 33N67W EXTENDS SOUTHWEST TOWARD CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA. SURFACE RIDGING ASSOCIATED WITH A 1030 MB HIGH NEAR 28N34W DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND ERN ATLC AND FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE TROPICAL ATLC. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS SUPPORTED BY A WIDESPREAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED BY AN ANTICYCLONE NEAR 23N36W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM MAURITANIA SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. BROADLY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT LIES SOUTHWEST OF THIS TROUGH AXIS AND SOUTH OF THE ANTICYCLONE OVER THE REGION OF THE ITCZ PRIMARILY W OF 25W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ SCHAUER