000
AXNT20 KNHC 131741
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
105 PM EST SUN FEB 13 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ IS ANALYZED FROM LIBERIA AT 7N11W TO EQ26W TO BRAZIL AT 
2S42W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-5N 
BETWEEN 5W-14W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 
4S-2N. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 2S-4N 
BETWEEN 35W-51W.    

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1030 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 
28N92W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. 5-10 KT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE 
WINDS ARE OVER THE N GULF WHILE 10-20 KT NE WINDS ARE OVER THE S 
GULF WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE SE GULF AND THE STRAITS OF 
FLORIDA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE OVER THE BAY OF 
CAMPECHE S OF 21N AND ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO TO S TEXAS.      
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...NW WINDS PREVAIL WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. 
EXPECT...THE SURFACE HIGH TO DRIFT TO THE NE GULF IN 24 HOURS. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO HONDURAS ALONG   
21N77W 19N86W 16N88W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE GULF OF 
HONDURAS...HONDURAS...N GUATEMALA...AND BELIZE FROM 14N-19N 
BETWEEN 85W-92W. 20-25 KT WINDS ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NW OF 
FRONT. 20 KT TRADEWINDS DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF CARIBBEAN SEA. 
PATCHES OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS 
DOTS THE CARIBBEAN ESPECIALLY THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 63W...AND 
ALONG THE COASTS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS 
ALONG 80W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN AND 
CENTRAL AMERICA SUPPRESSING CONVECTION. EXPECT...THE FRONT TO 
DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH RESIDUAL SHOWERS OVER THE 
GULF OF HONDURAS...AND MORE SHOWERS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N54W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO 
CENTRAL CUBA ALONG 24N70W 21N77W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 
90 NM N OF FRONT. A 1031 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC 
NEAR 29N35W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. THE USUAL TRADEWINDS ARE S 
OF 20N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE 
W ATLANTIC W OF 65W SUPPORTING THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. AN UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE VENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 
30W-65W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N E 
OF 30W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR...THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE E TO 
32N46W WITH SHOWERS.  

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA