000 AXNT20 KNHC 131210 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST SUN FEB 13 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ IS ANALYZED ALONG 5N5W 2N12W ALONG THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 19W-32W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR TO INLAND OVER BRAZIL SOUTH AMERICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N TO S OF THE EQUATOR W OF 37W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N TO THE COAST OF SW AFRICA BETWEEN 3W-9W AND FROM 4N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 24W-37W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E CONUS/GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE NW ATLC GIVING THE GULF MOSTLY SW TO W FLOW ALOFT SUPPORTING A FRONT IN THE W ATLC AND CARIBBEAN. DENSE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA S OF 24N E OF 83W TO INLAND OVER CUBA AND S OF 23N TO INLAND OVER THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BETWEEN 90W-93W. A SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH OFF THE COAST OF LOUISIANA NEAR 28N92W. THE RETURN SURFACE FLOW OVER THE GULF IS BANKING LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS INLAND ALONG THE THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS IN MEXICO AND WITHIN 60/75 NM ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO S OF 24N W OF 95W. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT E TO THE N CENTRAL GULF THROUGH MON THEN WILL SHIFT NE OF THE AREA WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NW FLORIDA TO NE MEXICO WED AND THU. CARIBBEAN SEA... AS OF 13/0900 UTC...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA NEAR CAMAGUEY ALONG 20N83W 18N87W THEN S TO JUST OFF THE COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N88W. DENSE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE FRONT AND WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 75 NM SE OF THE FRONT W OF 85W. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHILE A SECOND UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE FAR E CARIBBEAN INDUCING AN UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE MONA PASSAGE TO NE COLOMBIA. HOWEVER... STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR REMAIN OVER THE ENTIRE BASIN LIMITING ANY DEEP LAYERED SHOWER ACTIVITY. FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE E INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN USHERING IN SOME LOW LEVEL ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE OVER HAITI AND JAMAICA TO W PANAMA NEAR 9N82W. THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY SE WHILE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SE ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THROUGH TUE...THEN DIMINISH WED THROUGH FRI AS THE HIGH SHIFTS E. TRADES WILL ALSO DIMINISH OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WED THROUGH FRI. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 70W TO OVER THE E CONUS AND GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 13/0900 UTC EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC THROUGH 32N58W TO 24N72W BECOMING STATIONARY ACROSS THE BAHAMAS NEAR 23N75W TO OVER CUBA NEAR CAMAGUEY INTO THE CARIBBEAN. DENSE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 200/250 NM W OF THE COLD FRONT AND WITHIN 180/200 NM W OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. A VERY BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC ACROSS THE CENTRAL INTO THE E ATLC ANCHORED NEAR 24N45W. THE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO BUILD E BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE FAR W ATLC. A SURFACE RIDGE ALSO COVERS THE E AND CENTRAL ATLC E OF THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH NEAR 29N36W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC WATERS GIVING THE AREA FAIR WEATHER AGAIN THIS MORNING. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE LATER THIS EVENING THEN SLOWLY MOVE SE MON THROUGH TUE WHILE WEAKENING. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW ATLC MON NIGHT ACCELERATING SE AND MERGE WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE FIRST FRONT TUE NIGHT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW