000 AXNT20 KNHC 130538 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST SUN FEB 13 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ IS ANALYZED FROM LIBERIA ALONG 7N10W 3N15W 1N19W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 23W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N TO INLAND OVER SW AFRICA BETWEEN 1W-6W...FROM 2N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 5W-13W...AND FROM 4N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 25W-46W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E CONUS/GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE NW ATLC GIVING THE GULF MOSTLY SW TO W FLOW ALOFT SUPPORTING A FRONT IN THE W ATLC AND CARIBBEAN. DENSE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA SE OF A LINE FROM 25N80W TO OVER CUBA NEAR 23N83W AND S OF 24N TO INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BETWEEN 88W-93W. A SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH OFF THE COAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS NEAR 28N94W. THE RETURN SURFACE FLOW OVER THE GULF IS BANKING LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS INLAND ALONG THE THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS IN MEXICO AND WITHIN 60/75 NM ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO S OF 24N W OF 93W. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE E TO THE N CENTRAL GULF THROUGH MON THEN WILL SHIFT NE OF THE AREA WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NW FLORIDA TO NE MEXICO WED AND THU. CARIBBEAN SEA... AS OF 13/0300 UTC...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA JUST W OF CAMAGUEY ALONG 20N82W 19N86W THEN S TO JUST OFF THE COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N87W. DENSE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM W OF THE FRONT AND WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM SE OF THE FRONT W OF 85W. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHILE A SECOND UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE FAR E CARIBBEAN INDUCING AN UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE MONA PASSAGE TO NE COLOMBIA. HOWEVER... STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR REMAIN OVER THE ENTIRE BASIN LIMITING ANY DEEP LAYERED SHOWER ACTIVITY. FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE E AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN USHERING IN SOME LOW LEVEL FAST MOVING ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 14N78W TO OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N72W. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY OVERNIGHT THEN BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY SE WHILE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING THROUGH SUN NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SE ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH SUN NIGHT RESULTING IN N WINDS INCREASING OVER THE W CARIBBEAN THROUGH TUE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 70W TO OVER THE E CONUS AND GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 13/0300 UTC EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC THROUGH 32N59W TO 26N68W BECOMING STATIONARY ACROSS THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N75W TO OVER CUBA JUST W OF CAMAGUEY INTO THE CARIBBEAN. DENSE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 250 NM W OF THE COLD FRONT AND WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. A VERY BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC ACROSS THE CENTRAL INTO THE E ATLC ANCHORED NEAR 26N45W. THE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE FAR W ATLC. A SURFACE RIDGE ALSO COVERS THE E AND CENTRAL ATLC E OF THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH NEAR 29N38W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC WATERS GIVING THE AREA FAIR WEATHER AGAIN TONIGHT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE BY SUN EVENING THEN SLOWLY MOVE SE MON THROUGH TUE WHILE WEAKENING. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW ATLC MON NIGHT ACCELERATING SE AND MERGE WITH THE REMNANTS OF THIS FIRST FRONT TUE NIGHT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW