000
AXNT20 KNHC 122349
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
705 PM EST SAT FEB 12 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ IS ANALYZED ALONG 04N08W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 23W 
THEN INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 03S39W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 75 NM OF A LINE FROM 01N24W TO 00N28W. ELSEWHERE ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 03N BETWEEN 33W-38W 
AND FROM 01N-05N BETWEEN 42W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS EVENING INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE SE CONUS TO THE TEXAS GULF COAST AND 
WESTWARD TO A BASE OVER NORTH-CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 28N105W. SE OF 
THIS TROUGHING...MOSTLY SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS 
SUPPORTIVE OF A PAIR OF 1034 MB SURFACE HIGHS...ONE CENTERED 
NEAR LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA AND THE OTHER NEAR BROWNSVILLE 
TEXAS. THE SURFACE RIDGING REMAINS EXPANSIVE COVERING A LARGE 
AREA FROM THE FAR W ATLC AND FLORIDA PENINSULA TO THE YUCATAN 
PENINSULA AND MUCH OF EASTERN MEXICO. WITH THE HIGH CENTERED 
OVER THE NW GULF WATERS...NE WINDS UP TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED 
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY SUNDAY. BY LATE SUNDAY 
THE HIGH WILL LOCATE OVER THE NE GULF WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW 
EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN OVER THE NW GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS IS 
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC 
CROSSING CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N79W AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN 
ALONG 22N80W TO 20N82W. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG 20N 
TO 86W THEN SOUTHWARD TO THE COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N87W. MOST 
LOW-LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND MOISTURE IS LOCATED NW OF THE BOUNDARY 
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE 
FRONT BETWEEN 83W-87W. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SE OVER 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AS 
SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS IN ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. AS A 
RESULT...STRONG NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED W OF 78W THROUGH EARLY 
MONDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS EXPERIENCING FRESH TO 
MODERATE TRADE WINDS WITH RELATIVELY STABLE CONDITIONS THIS 
EVENING. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE CONCENTRATED IN THREE 
AREAS MAINLY AS A RESULT OF LOW-LEVEL SPEED CONVERGENCE. THE 
FIRST IS S OF 15N BETWEEN 60W-65W INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN LESSER 
ANTILLES...THE SECOND AREA IS SW OF HISPANIOLA WITHIN 120 NM OF 
A LINE FROM 20N72W TO 14N77W...AND THE THIRD IS S OF 15N W OF 
82W INCLUDING MOST OF NICARAGUA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS SUPPORTS A COLD 
FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA IN THE VICINITY OF BERMUDA 
NEAR 32N65W TRAILING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG 28N70W TO THE CENTRAL 
BAHAMAS NEAR 25N76W THEN TO CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 23N79W. MOST 
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS IS LOCATED WITHIN 180 NM NW OF 
THE FRONT...WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. STRONG SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES TO 
BUILD IN WEST OF THE FRONT EXTENDING WESTWARD TO THE FLORIDA 
PENINSULA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE REMAINDER OF THE 
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE 
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 
28N38W. A LARGE AREA OF 20 TO 25 KT NE TO E WINDS IS LOCATED ON 
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH COVERING THE AREA NORTH OF 
THE ITCZ FROM 04N-19N BETWEEN 17W-61W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN