000 AXNT20 KNHC 121758 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST SAT FEB 12 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ IS ANALYZED FROM LIBERIA NEAR 6N10W ALONG 1N20W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 23W EXTENDING ALONG 2S TO NE BRAZIL. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE S OF 5N W OF 36W ACROSS THE EQUATOR AND INTO SOUTH AMERICA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 30W AND 36W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 17W AND 26W AND ON THE COAST TO OVER LIBERIA FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 8W AND 12W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD FLAT UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E CONUS/GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE W ATLC GIVING THE GULF SW-W FLOW ALOFT SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT IN THE W ATLC AND CARIBBEAN. DENSE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER THE GULF S OF LINE FROM FLORIDA NEAR 26N82W TO THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 24N91W AND E OF 91W AND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. ANOTHER PORTION OF DENSE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE COAST OF MEXICO BANKING ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS IN MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GULF ANCHORED AT 12/1500 UTC BY A 1035 MB HIGH OVER THE COAST OF TEXAS NEAR 29N95W. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE GULF THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. CARIBBEAN SEA... AS OF 12/1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N80W ALONG 21N82W TO 20N85W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY S TO THE NW COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N88W. DENSE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN W OF THE FRONT INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM E OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN WHILE A SECOND UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN INDUCING AN UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE ISLAND OF HISPANIOLA TO THE PANAMA/COSTA RICA BORDER. HOWEVER... STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR COVERS THE ENTIRE BASIN LIMITING DEEP LAYERED SHOWER ACTIVITY. FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN PULLING IN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS E OF 64W TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. ANOTHER AREA OF ISOLATED SHOWERS IS FROM 14N TO HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 71W AND 75W. THE TRADES ARE ALSO BANKING SOME SHOWERS OVER NICARAGUA. TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY LATER TODAY AS THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM E CUBA TO N HONDURAS BY TONIGHT THEN STALL AS THE COLD FRONT IS ALREADY SLOWING AND DISSIPATE LATE SUN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD FLAT UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 67W TO OVER THE E CONUS AND GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 12/1500 UTC EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC THROUGH 32N65W ALONG 27N72W ACROSS THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N76W TO CENTRAL CUBA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 22N80W. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 45 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 26N. DENSE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE W OF THE FRONT TO OVER S FLORIDA SE OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. A VERY BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E AND CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH NEAR 28N39W AND A 1029 MB HIGH N OF THE AREA WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING W TO 24N69W...AND GIVING THE MAJORITY OF THE ATLC S OF 32N FAIR WEATHER. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM JUST E OF BERMUDA TO E CUBA BY TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING THEN DISSIPATING BY MON. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MONTALVO/WALTON