000
AXNT20 KNHC 110536
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
105 AM EST FRI FEB 11 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0530 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 6N11W 
SW ALONG 2N20W EQ30W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR EQ50W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 4N BETWEEN 20W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MOST OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WAS MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OVER THE 
PAST DAY IS NOW OUT OF THE AREA INTO THE WEST ATLC. HOWEVER... 
THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THE FRONT HAS BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS 
THE NW COAST OF CUBA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ALONG 24N82W TO 
21N87W. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN WITHIN 25 NM ON EITHER 
SIDE OF THE FRONT. DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY DETECTS SIMILAR 
ACTIVITY S OF 26N E OF 84W AFFECTING MOSTLY THE COASTAL WATERS 
OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA S OF 26N. OTHERWISE...BROKEN TO 
OVERCAST LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF 
WITH NORTHERLY WINDS 10-15 KT ACROSS THE AREA. LOOK FOR THESE 
AREAS OF SHOWERS DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT 
CHANGES EXPECTED ELSEWHERE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE STATIONARY FRONT MENTIONED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO DISCUSSION 
HANGS AROUND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL PRODUCING A FEW ISOLATED 
SHOWERS WITHIN 25 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT ALONG 24N82W TO 
21N87W. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE 
FRONT LOOSES ENERGY. THEN...COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE 
FRONT WILL REGAIN STRENGTH AND GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER 
THE FAR NW BASIN FRIDAY NIGHT. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION...A 
VERY DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN 
SEA THIS EVENING...PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS 
ACROSS THE BASIN. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE 
AREA. THIS FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM 
THE TROPICAL ATLC INTO THE CARIBBEAN BASIN E OF 70W...PROVIDING 
FOCUS FOR WEAK SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE FAR SE CORNER S OF 14N 
E OF 65W. APART FROM THE FRONT IN THE NW BASIN...NO SIGNIFICANT 
CHANGES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.   

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE NW ATLC AND PART OF THE NE 
CONUS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE IS 
AT THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE SE CONUS 
PUSHING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS FEATURE SUPPORTS A COLD 
FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH 32N67W AND 
CONTINUES SW TO ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS ALONG 26N77W TO THE 
FLORIDA STRAITS ALONG 24N82W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO STATIONARY. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT N OF 
25N. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST OVER THE NEXT 
24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION. OTHERWISE...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE 
COVERS MOST OF THE ATLC...ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH NEAR 
35N35W. THIS FEATURE IS PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS 
MUCH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA