000 AXNT20 KNHC 101816 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST THU FEB 10 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 6N10W SW TO EQ30W TO EQS50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS E OF 25W...AND FROM 1N TO 4N BETWEEN 34W AND 47W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE GULF FROM THE NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. A NARROW LINE OF SHOWERS IS EMBEDDED ALONG THE FRONT S OF 25N. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS TO GALE FORCE ARE OBSERVED S OF 20N WEST OF THE FRONT...GENERATING SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE E OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS WITH CONVECTION AND MODERATE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND IT. CARIBBEAN SEA... A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN SEA...PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BASIN. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC INTO THE CARIBBEAN BASIN E OF 73W...PROVIDING FOCUS FOR WEAK TRADE WIND SHOWERS ACROSS THIS AREA. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS MOST OF THE ATLC...ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH NEAR 29N46W. THIS FEATURE IS PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA EXCEPT FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT MOVING OFF NORTHERN FLORIDA IN NW PORTION OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS TO PERSIST ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TONIGHT THEN BECOME MORE DISORGANIZED FRI AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND BECOME STATIONARY FROM 31N66W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS SAT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MUNDELL