000
AXNT20 KNHC 100538
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
105 AM EST THU FEB 10 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0530 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 6N11W 
SW ALONG 3N20W EQ27W 3S30W TO 4S40W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 50 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE 
AXIS E OF 25W. 
 
...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES THIS 
EVENING...SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE GULF 
FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO VERACRUZ MEXICO ALONG 31N86W 
26N91W 19N96W. A WEAK 1012 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED IN THE FRONT NEAR 
29N88W. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES SCATTERED SHOWERS 
N OF 26N E OF 92W. THESE SHOWERS ARE MOVING INLAND AT ABOUT 20 
KT. A NARROW LINE OF SHOWERS IS EMBEDDED IN THE FRONT S OF 26N 
NOTED ON NIGHT VISION SATELLITE IMAGERY. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS 
TO GALE FORCE ARE OBSERVED WEST OF THE FRONT...GENERATING SEAS 8 
TO 10 FT. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE 
NEXT 24 HRS WITH CONVECTION AND A GOOD AMOUNT OF COLD AIR 
ADVECTION BEHIND IT.    

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A VERY DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE 
CARIBBEAN SEA THIS EVENING...PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER 
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BASIN. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE 
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT SOME LOW LEVEL 
MOISTURE FROM THE TRPCL ATLC INTO THE BASIN E OF 70W...PROVIDING 
WEAK SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THIS AREA. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS 
OVER THE FAR NW BASIN AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY IN 
RESPONSE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE GULF. 
OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DISSIPATING...NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION 
AREA NEAR 32N50W EXTENDING SW TO NEAR 28N63W. THIS FRONT HAS 
LOST ITS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND THUS NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION 
IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH IT. OTHERWISE...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL 
RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB 
HIGH NEAR 30N40W. THIS FEATURE IS PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER 
CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. A LOW PRESSURE 
SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED FRONT PRESENTLY OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO 
WILL ENTER THE WESTERN ATLC OVER THE NEXT 12 HRS WITH 
CONVECTION. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA