000
AXNT20 KNHC 092353
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
705 PM EST WED FEB 09 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM LIBERIA AT 6N10W TO 2N20W TO 2S30W TO 
BRAZIL AT 3S40W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 6W. 
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-3N BETWEEN 
21W-24W...AND FROM 2S-2N BETWEEN 27W-30W.
 
...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM S LOUISIANA TO 
TAMPICO MEXICO ALONG 30N92W 27N95W 21N97W MOVING SE. COMPOSITE 
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS RAIN AND SHOWERS OVER LOUISIANA AND 
MISSISSIPPI. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE W OF FRONT WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. 
15-20 KT SE WINDS ARE E OF FRONT AND W OF 90W. BROKEN TO 
OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO N OF 
22N AND W OF 83W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS S OF 22N. IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS...ZONAL WINDS PREVAIL WITH 70-110 KT UPPER LEVEL WINDS N 
OF 24N. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS N OF 25N WITH 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE S OF 25N. EXPECT...THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND 
FROM S FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN 24 HOURS WITH 
CONVECTION AND A GOOD AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
10-20 KT TRADEWINDS DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL 
AMERICA WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. 
A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 9N75W. 
PATCHES OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS 
DOTS THE CARIBBEAN ESPECIALLY THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 68W...AND THE 
W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 80W. IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED N OF COLOMBIA NEAR 
14N73W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN AND 
CENTRAL AMERICA SUPPRESSING CONVECTION. EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO 
BE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION. ALSO 
EXPECT THE TRADEWINDS TO CONTINUE TO ADVECT SHOWERS W OVER THE 
CARIBBEAN.   

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 
31N56W TO E OF THE BAHAMAS 25N72W. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1024 MB HIGH 
IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 28N44W PRODUCING FAIR 
WEATHER. THE USUAL TRADEWINDS ARE S OF 20N. IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS N OF 20N W OF 60W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE 
IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 30W-60W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER 
THE CANARY ISLANDS.  EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR...A COLD FRONT TO BE 
OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND EXTEND FROM 31N73W TO S FLORIDA WITH 
SHOWERS. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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FORMOSA