000
AXNT20 KNHC 091755
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
105 PM EST WED FEB 09 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE COAST 
OF LIBERIA NEAR 06N10W SW TO NEAR 3S39W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 25W AND 29W.
 
...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE TEXAS COAST IS EXPECTED TO MOVE 
INTO THE NW GULF LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH N-NW WINDS TO GALE 
FORCE IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH TONIGHT. TIGHT PRES 
GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG RETURN 
FLOW W OF 95W THIS MORNING. RIDGE EXTENDS OVER REMAINDER OF GULF 
WITH MODERATE E TO SE TRADE WINDS OBSERVED. STRONG HIGH PRES OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL PUSH THE COLD FRONT RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD 
THROUGH THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF THROUGH THU...WITH THE FRONT
EXTENDING FROM W CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. 
FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN THU NIGHT AND FRI...THEN
DISSIPATE AS A STATIONARY FRONT FRI NIGHT AND SAT FROM SW FLORIDA
TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL BUILD W TO E ALONG
30N SAT AND SUN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
STRONG PERSISTENT HIGH PRES RIDGE N OF THE AREA IS SUPPORTING 
FRESH TO STRONG E TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN. SHIP OBS 
IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING INDICATE WIDESPREAD AREA 
OF 25 KT WINDS BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND JAMAICA...WHICH SHOULD BE 
WELL DEPICTED IN SCATTEROMETER PASSES LATER TODAY. LITTLE CHANGE 
IN WINDS AND SEA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SAT EXCEPT FOR NW 
CARIBBEAN W OF 82W...WHERE APPROACHING GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT 
WILL WEAKEN PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA THU THROUGH FRI NIGHT. 
NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT THIS WEEKEND NEAR THE YUCATAN 
PENINSULA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 32N59W TO CENTRAL BAHAMAS IS DISSIPATING AS
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHIFTS WELL NE OF THE AREA. FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE BY THIS EVENING. BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE 
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A STATIONARY 1026 MB HIGH PRES 
NEAR 28N44W. FURTHER EAST...A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS 
A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 32N17W TO 27N19W. FRESH TO STRONG 
TRADE WINDS S OF THE RIDGE IS GENERATING LARGE AREA OF 10 TO 12 
FT SEAS S OF 22N EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. A COLD FRONT WILL 
MOVE OFF THE S.E. COAST OF THE U.S. THU MORNING AND STALL FROM 
31N69W TO 26N80W THU NIGHT. WEAK LOW PRES WILL FORM ALONG THE 
BOUNDARY AND MOVE NE OF THE AREA FRI. THE COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT 
SE THEN STALL AGAIN FROM 28N65W TO EASTERN CUBA BY EARLY SUN. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

MUNDELL