000 AXNT20 KNHC 091131 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST WED FEB 09 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 7N12W SW TO NEAR 2S25W WESTWARD ALONG 3S30W TO 4S40W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5S-5N BETWEEN 20W-30W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS MORNING. MARINE OBS OVER THE BASIN INDICATE 5-15 KT ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NW IS BECOMING COMPACTED PRODUCING RETURN FLOW UP TO 25 KT NEAR THE COAST OF TEXAS. THIS INCREASE IN WINDS IS IN RESPONSE OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NW BASIN IN THE NEXT 3 TO 6 HRS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHILE GALE FORCE WINDS BEHIND IT PRODUCING SEAS 9 TO 12 FT. CARIBBEAN SEA... A VERY DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN SEA THIS MORNING...PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BASIN. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE AREA AND BEGIN TO TURN CYCLONICALLY AROUND 77W. THIS FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE TRPCL ATLC INTO THE BASIN...PROVIDING WEAK SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A NARROW UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE EXTENDS POSITIVELY TILTED ACROSS THE W AND N CENTRAL ATLC...SUPPORTING A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA AS A WEAK STNRY FRONT NEAR 30N64W EXTENDING SW TO ACROSS THE BAHAMAS NEAR 23N75W TO CUBA NEAR 21N77W. WEAK SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING WITHIN 20 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT N OF 25N. AS THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT QUICKLY MOVES AWAY FROM THE SURFACE FEATURE...EXPECT THIS SYSTEM TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HRS. OTHERWISE...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 29N45W. THIS FEATURE IS PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS E OF 62W. HOWEVER...A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE FAR E ATLC...SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS OUR DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 32N18W TO 27N21W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 20 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA