000 AXNT20 KNHC 090535 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST WED FEB 09 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 7N12W SW TO NEAR 1S26W WESTWARD ALONG 1N38 TO 1N50W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4S-4N BETWEEN 20W-38W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS EVENING. MARINE OBS OVER THE BASIN INDICATE 5-15 KT ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...RETURN FLOW OVER THE FAR WEST BASIN IS GRADUALLY INCREASING TO UP TO 25 KT NEAR THE COAST OF TEXAS IN RESPONSE OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NW BASIN WITH CONVECTION AND GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THE COLD FRONT MENTIONED IN THE ATLC OCEAN DISCUSSION ENTERS THE NW CARIBBEAN BASIN AS A WEAK STNRY FRONT ACROSS CUBA TO THE COAST OF HONDURAS ALONG 29N79W TO 16N87W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AS IT CONTINUES TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE TO A REMNANT AREA OF WEAK SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 78W-84W. OTHERWISE A VERY DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN SEA THIS EVENING...PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE AREA AND BEGIN TO TURN CYCLONICALLY AROUND 77W. THIS FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE TRPCL ATLC INTO THE BASIN...PROVIDING WEAK SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A NARROW UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE EXTENDS POSITIVELY TILTED ACROSS THE W AND N CENTRAL ATLC...SUPPORTING A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N63W EXTENDING SW TO ACROSS THE BAHAMAS NEAR 23N75W AND CUBA NEAR 29N79W. WEAK SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING WITHIN 20 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT N OF 25N. AS THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT QUICKLY MOVES AWAY FROM THE SURFACE FEATURE...EXPECT THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME STATIONARY AND DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HRS. OTHERWISE...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR 29N45W. THIS FEATURE IS PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS E OF 64W. HOWEVER...A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE FAR E ATLC...SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS OUR DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 32N18W TO 27N19W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 20 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA