000 AXNT20 KNHC 082323 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST TUE FEB 08 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM LIBERIA AT 5N9W TO 1N25W TO 5N40W TO BRAZIL AT 2N51W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2S-2N BETWEEN 32W-38W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH RIDGE AXIS ALONG 90W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE OVER THE WESTERN GULF W OF 91W DUE TO RETURN FLOW. 5-10 KT SURFACE WINDS ARE OVER THE E GULF WHILE 15-20 KT WINDS ARE OVER THE W GULF. COMPOSITE RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS NO PRECIPITATION OVER THE GULF COAST. TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE 50'S OVER THE N GULF STATES TO THE 70'S OVER W CUBA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL WINDS PREVAIL WITH 70-90 KT N OF 24N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... AS OF 2100 UTC ... THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO HONDURAS ALONG 22N78W 19N85W 16N87W. THE FRONT DELINEATES A WIND SHIFT WITH NO PRECIPITATION. EAST OF THE FRONT 15-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 8N73W WITH ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 72W-75W. PATCHES OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS DOTS THE CARIBBEAN ESPECIALLY S OF HISPANIOLA .... AND OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF JAMAICA. MORE SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LOW IS CENTERED N OF COLOMBIA NEAR 12N74W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA SUPPRESSING CONVECTION. IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS EXPECT FOR...THE COLD FRONT TO DISSIPATE. ALSO EXPECT THE TRADEWINDS TO CONTINUE TO ADVECT SHOWERS W OVER THE CARIBBEAN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N67W TO CENTRAL CUBA AT 22N78W. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT N OF 28N. A 1026 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 27N49W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. THE USUAL TRADEWINDS ARE S OF 20N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 70W SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONT. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 25N57W. A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE EAST ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND E OF 40W SUPPORTING ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM N OF 30N. EXPECT...THE COLD FRONT OVER THE W ATLANTIC TO MOVE E TO 31N57W AND EXTEND SW TO THE BAHAMAS IN 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MRF/NAR