000 AXNT20 KNHC 081752 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST TUE FEB 08 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM LIBERIA NEAR 6N9W ALONG 1N25W 2N31W 5N41W 1N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75/90 NM OF LINE FROM 4N26W TO 7N38W WITH CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION FROM THE ITCZ TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 29W-37W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... IN WAKE OF RECENT FRONTAL PASSAGE THE GULF IS LEFT WITH NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT LEAVING COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS OVER THE NE GULF MAINLY N OF 25N E OF 90W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF AND THE SE CONUS ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A WEAK 1024 MB HIGH INLAND OVER MEXICO W OF TAMPICO. SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE S GULF AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 21N AND COULD BE GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM THE W TIP OF CUBA TO TUXPAN MEXICO. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE GULF THROUGH WED THEN MOVE E AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATE WED. THE NEW FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA TO E BAY OF CAMPECHE ON THU. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAIN OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND AT 08/1500 UTC EXTEND FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS CUBA NEAR SANTA CLARA ALONG 21N85W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO 18N87W THEN DISSIPATES TO THE COAST OF GUATEMALA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM W OF THE FRONT W OF 84W. ISOLATED SHOWERS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA W OF THE FRONT TO INLAND OVER THE THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. AN UPPER TROUGH IS TO THE E EXTENDING FROM HAITI TO E PANAMA. HOWEVER...THIS UPPER TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT. A BAND OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75/90 NM OF LINE FROM 13N64W 15N73W TO 18N79W INCLUDING JAMAICA. SIMILAR CLOUDS/SHOWER ACTIVITY ARE WITHIN 75/90 NM OF LINE FROM CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N79W TO TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA TO NICARAGUA NEAR 12N85W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND THEN DISSIPATE ON WED. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC WHICH WILL MAINTAIN TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN THROUGH WED THEN DIMINISH ON THU. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AT 08/1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W ATLC NEAR 32N68W EXTENDING ALONG 27N74W TO ACROSS CUBA AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN NEAR SANTA CLARA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN A NARROW BAND JUST E OF THE FRONT. THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE FRONT IS WELL N OF THE REGION WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING E OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT IS W OF THE FRONT LIMITING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE W OF THE FRONT TO THE FLORIDA COAST N OF MELBOURNE AND WITHIN 60 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC AND CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED NEAR 27N57W WITH SURFACE RIDGE COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF 70W ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH NEAR 28N48W. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME STATIONARY LATER THIS EVENING EXTENDING FROM ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ON WED AND DISSIPATE ON THU. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW