000 AXNT20 KNHC 080534 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST TUE FEB 08 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0530 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 5N10W WESTWARD ALONG 1N20W EQ30W 1N40W 1S47W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2S-7N BETWEEN 20W-46W ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS INTO THE WEST ATLC. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE IS AT THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GULF. THESE FEATURES SUPPORT A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION EXTENDING ACROSS THE FAR SE BASIN FROM THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 26N81W TO 2N87W. COMPOSITE DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS THE FRONT AS A NARROW LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL QUICKLY MOVE OUT OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 4 HOURS. BEHIND THIS FRONT...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE FAR NE BASIN ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH NORTHERN FLORIDA NEAR 30N82W EXTENDING SW TO NEAR 26N85W. THIS FRONT LACKS OF CONVECTION...BUT RATHER INDICATES A REINFORCING DROP IN TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT...AS WELL AS NORTHERLY GUSTY 15-30 KT WINDS N OF 25. AS THIS FRONT MOVES OUT OF THE AREA...A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE WEST BASIN... ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH AROUND 23N96W. THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE WILL BE A GOOD AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONTS OVER FLORIDA AND THE E GULF E OF 90W DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THE COLD FRONT MENTIONED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO DISCUSSION BEGINS TO ENTER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST OVER THE NEXT 6 TO 9 HRS WITH CONVECTION ADVECTING MOSTLY THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE W OF 86W. OTHERWISE...A VERY DRY AND SUBSIDENT AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN SEA THIS EVENING...PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BASIN. AT SURFACE...TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS MUCH THE BASIN AND BEGIN TO TURN CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE COLOMBIAN COAST. THIS FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC INTO THE BASIN...PROVIDING WEAK SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN BASIN E OF 70W S OF 15N. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS HAPPENING OVER THE N CENTRAL BASIN N OF 18N BETWEEN 72W-80W. AS THE FLOW TURNS CYCLONICALLY IN THE SW BASIN...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DEVELOPS NEAR THE COASTAL WATERS OF NICARAGUA W OF 82W SUPPORTING SCATTERED WEAK SHOWERS IN THIS REGION. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE/TROUGH MOVES OFF THE ERN CONUS SEABOARD...SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N75W EXTENDING SW TO THE SRN FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 26N81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING WITHIN 40 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD WITH CONVECTION AFFECTING THE W ATLC BASIN AND THE COASTAL WATERS ACROSS THE BAHAMAS. OTHERWISE ...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC AND SUPPORTS A 1028 MB HIGH NEAR 30N51W. THIS FEATURE IS PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS E OF 72W. HOWEVER...A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE EAST ATLC... SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS OUR DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 32N23W TO 26N30W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 20 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES E OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA