000 AXNT20 KNHC 072355 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST MON FEB 07 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM LIBERIA AT 5N10W TO 1N20W TO 2N37W TO BRAZIL AT 1S47W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2S-3N BETWEEN 19W-38W...AND FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 38W-46W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM N OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA TO N OF TAMPA FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO S MEXICO ALONG 29N81W 28N83W 21N91W 18N91W. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND THE NE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 31N86W 25N90W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS RAIN AND SHOWERS DUE TO BOTH FRONTS OVER N FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF N OF 26N E OF 86W MOVING E. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE W OF BOTH FRONTS TO 90W...AND W OF THE FIRST FRONT S OF 24N IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. A 1026 MB HIGH IS OVER NE MEXICO NEAR 25N98W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A GALE IS OVER THE SW GULF S OF 25N W OF FRONT WITH NW TO N WINDS 30-35 KT. SEAS ARE 8-11 FT. THE GALE IS FORECAST TO END IN A FEW HOURS BUT 25-30 KT WINDS WILL PERSIST THERE OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE 25-30 KT BEHIND THE FRONTS WHILE...SW 15-20 KT WINDS ARE OVER THE SE GULF E OF THE FIRST FRONT. THERE IS A 30 DEGREE DROP IN TEMPERATURE FROM ONE SIDE OF THE FIRST FRONT TO THE OTHER OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE TEMPERATURES ARE IN GENERAL IN THE 50'S ALONG THE COAST OF THE N GULF STATES...AND IN THE 80'S OVER W CUBA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE NW GULF SUPPORTING THE FRONTAL SYSTEMS. A 90-130 KT JETSTREAM IS OVER THE N GULF N OF 24N. SOME HIGH CLOUD IS NOTED OVER THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AND THE NE GULF. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA HAS STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR...THE COLD FRONTS TO MOVE TO THE W ATLANTIC AND THE NW CARIBBEAN. THERE WILL BE A GOOD AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONTS OVER FLORIDA AND THE E GULF E OF 90W. CARIBBEAN SEA... 10-15 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. 15-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN E OF 80W WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA...AND OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 8N74W. PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS DOTS THE CARIBBEAN ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND JAMAICA. MORE SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO HONDURAS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVELS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED S OF JAMAICA NEAR 14N77W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA SUPPRESSING CONVECTION. EXPECT IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR...THE A COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT THE TRADEWINDS TO CONTINUE TO ADVECT SHOWERS W OVER THE CARIBBEAN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT HAS JUST MOVED OFF THE COAST OF NE FLORIDA FROM 31N78W TO N OF CAPE CANAVERAL PRODUCING SHOWERS AND RAIN W OF FRONT. A 1027 MB HIGH IS FURTHER E OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 29N52W. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 36N20W TO 30N26W. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM N OF THE FRONT. A 1026 MB HIGH IS CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF MOROCCO NEAR 35N7W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO THE CANARY ISLANDS. THE USUAL TRADEWINDS ARE S OF 20N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N W OF 50W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS N OF 10N BETWEEN 20W-50W WITH AN EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL LOW AT 23N26W. EXPECT...THE COLD FRONT OVER THE W ATLANTIC TO MOVE E TO 31N67W AND EXTEND SW TO CENTRAL CUBA IN 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS AND A GOOD AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA