000 AXNT20 KNHC 071139 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST MON FEB 07 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1130 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 6N11W WESTWARD ALONG 5N17W 5N25W 2N35W 2N45W 1S50W. ISOLATED PATCHES OF MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 80 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS W OF 18W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING ALONG THE EQUATOR LINE W OF 10W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE/TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. THIS FEATURE SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL LOUISIANA COAST TO TAMPICO MEXICO ALONG 29N91W 26N94W 22N98W. SATELLITE AND DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 30 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 25N. AS THIS FRONT CONTINUES TO QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF...GALE FORCE WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT S OF 25N GENERATING SEAS BETWEEN 8 TO 11 FT. AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO THE FRONT...A BROADER AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS FROM EASTERN LOUISIANA TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE N OF 28N E OF 90W. SOUTH OF THIS AREA OF CONVECTION LIES A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT THAT CROSSES TO FLORIDA PENINSULA N OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE ALONG 27N81W TO 26N85W. FROM THIS POINT IT TRANSITIONS TO A WEAK WARM FRONT ANALYZED ALONG 27N88W TO 25N91W. THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST...IT IS EXPECTED TO OVERCOME THE WARM AND STATIONARY FRONTS OVER THE NEXT 6-12 HRS. IN THE MEAN TIME...EXPECT MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS THE N CENTRAL AND N EASTERN BASIN DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN VERY DRY AND SUBSIDENT AIRMASS SITS OVER THE CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING...PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BASIN. AT SURFACE...TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS MUCH THE BASIN AND BEGIN TO TURN CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE COLOMBIAN COAST. THIS FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC INTO THE BASIN...PROVIDING WEAK SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN BASIN E OF 70W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS HAPPENING OVER THE N CENTRAL BASIN N OF 16N BETWEEN 72W AND JAMAICA. AS THE FLOW TURNS CYCLONICALLY...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DEVELOPS FROM THE COAST OF PANAMA TO 20N BETWEEN 78W-84W SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THIS REGION. AS THE UPPER DRY AIRMASS LINGER OVER THE AREA...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE/TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS SUPPORTING A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N72W TO ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 27N81W. DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS N OF 28N W OF 77W. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE COVERS A GREAT PART OF THE ATLC AND SUPPORTS A 1027 MB HIGH NEAR 29N49W...PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS E OF 70W. HOWEVER...A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE EAST ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS OUR DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 32N27W TO 28N33W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES E OF THIS SYSTEM ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR 32N12W. LOOK FOR MORE CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE FAR WEST ATLC...AS SHORT RANGE COMPUTER MODELS GET IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO...MOVING OFF THE EASTERN CONUS SEABOARD IN THE NEXT 12 HRS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA