000
AXNT20 KNHC 070535
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
105 AM EST MON FEB 07 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0530 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE SOUTHERN COAST OF LIBERIA 
NEAR 4N8W WESTWARD ALONG 3N15W 5N25W 2N35W 1N45W EQ50W. ISOLATED 
PATCHES OF MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 80 NM ON EITHER 
SIDE OF THE AXIS W OF 17W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING ALONG 
THE EQUATOR LINE W OF 12W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE/TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND 
EASTERN CONUS. THIS FEATURE SUPPORTS THE NEW FRONTAL BOUNDARY... 
CURRENTLY EMERGING OFF THE TEXAS COAST NOTED ON DOPPLER RADAR 
IMAGERY. AS THIS FRONT CONTINUES TO QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE 
WESTERN GULF...GALE FORCE WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT 
GENERATING SEAS BETWEEN 8 TO 11 FT. ON THE OTHER END...SCATTERED 
SHOWERS COVER MUCH OF THE NE BASIN E OF 90W FROM 25N-29N. WITHIN 
THIS AREA OF CONVECTION LIES A STATIONARY FRONT THAT CROSSES TO 
FLORIDA PENINSULA ALONG 26N81W TO 25N85W. FROM THIS POINT IT 
TRANSITIONS TO A WARM FRONT ANALYZED ALONG 26N88W TO 24N93W...IN 
RESPONSE OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE TEXAS COAST...WHICH IS 
EXPECTED TO OVERCOME THE WARM AND STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE NEXT 
12-24 HRS. IN THE MEAN TIME...EXPECT MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS 
THE N CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.  

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN VERY DRY AND SUBSIDENT AIRMASS SITS OVER THE CARIBBEAN THIS 
EVENING...PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE 
BASIN. AT SURFACE...TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS MUCH THE BASIN AND 
BEGIN TO TURN CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE COLOMBIAN COAST. THIS FLOW 
CONTINUES TO ADVECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC 
INTO THE BASIN...PROVIDING WEAK SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE 
EASTERN BASIN E OF 72W. AS THE FLOW TURNS CYCLONICALLY... LOW 
LEVEL CONVERGENCE DEVELOPS FROM THE COAST OF PANAMA TO 20N 
BETWEEN 79W-83W SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THIS REGION. AS 
THE UPPER DRY AIRMASS LINGER OVER THE AREA...NO SIGNIFICANT 
CHANGES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE/TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND 
EASTERN CONUS SUPPORTING A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED FROM 
32N71W TO ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 26N81W. SATELLITE 
AND DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE POSSIBLE SCATTERED SHOWERS N 
OF 28N W OF 77W. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE 
COVERS A GREAT PART OF THE ATLC AND SUPPORTS A 1028 MB HIGH NEAR 
29N49W...PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS E OF 70W. HOWEVER...A 
NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE EAST ATLC 
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS OUR DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 
32N27W TO 28N32W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON 
EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES E OF THIS 
SYSTEM ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH NEAR 32N15W. LOOK FOR MORE 
CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE FAR WEST ATLC...AS SHORT RANGE 
COMPUTER MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT COLD 
FRONT...CURRENTLY OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO ...MOVING OFF THE 
EASTERN CONUS SEABOARD IN THE NEXT 24 HRS.  

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA