000 AXNT20 KNHC 062335 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST SUN FEB 06 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2230 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS ANALYZED ALONG 6N17W 5N24W 1N35W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 45W TO 2S48N. ISOLATED PATCHES OF MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM EQ-6N BETWEEN 16W-22W...AND FROM 2S-4N BETWEEN 25W-36W. WIDESPREAD MODERATE/SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-6N BETWEEN 42W-51W. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER PORTIONS OF COASTAL BRAZIL BETWEEN 45W-54W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND STRATIFORM SHOWERS CONTINUE TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AS A BROAD LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE ERN CONUS PROVIDING MOIST SWLY FLOW ALOFT FROM MEXICO TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. A STATIONARY FRONT LIES ACROSS S FLORIDA AND THE SE GULF FROM S OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 23N88W. S OF THIS BOUNDARY DRY AIR FROM THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS NWD PROVIDING EXTREME S FLORIDA AND THE YUCATAN WITH FAIRER CONDITIONS. A SURFACE RIDGE OVER SE ALABAMA IS ALSO PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS OVER THE EXTREME NRN GULF COAST. THE STATIONARY FRONT IS FORECAST TO DRIFT NWD BEFORE BEING OVERCOME AND ABSORBED BY THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW AS A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER NEW MEXICO AND WRN TEXAS PUSHES EWD. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE BASIN AND THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE GALE FORCE WIND W OF THE FRONT. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN EXTREMELY DRY AND SUBSIDENT AIR MASS SITS OVER THE CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BASIN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT AN E TO W ORIENTED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SRN WINDWARD ISLANDS TO SRN CENTRAL AMERICA WHICH IS SUPPORTING SOME OF THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE SEEN TO THE N OF THE AXIS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS TO THE W EXTENDING FROM THE E PACIFIC ACROSS HONDURAS AND CUBA INTO THE W ATLC. E-NE TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS MUCH THE BASIN AND BEGIN TO TURN CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE COLOMBIAN COAST SUPPORTING CONVERGENCE AND SOME SHOWERS ALONG THE NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA...AND PANAMA COASTLINES. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE ERN CONUS SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N71W EXTENDING SW TO THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR W PALM BEACH. RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM BEHIND THE FRONT. FARTHER E...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE MAJORITY OF THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF 1026 MB HIGHS NEAR 31N49W AND 35N39W PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS SUPPORTED BY A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM CUBA NE TO NEAR 40N50W. A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AZORES ISLANDS SWD ALONG 30W THEN ESE TOWARDS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT CLIPS THE NRN BOUNDARY OF THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 30N BETWEEN 33W-41W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES E OF THIS DEEP LAYER TROUGH ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH N OF THE CANARY ISLANDS. BROAD HORIZONTAL UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE EQUATORIAL ATLC. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON