000 AXNT20 KNHC 061147 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST SUN FEB 06 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 05N09W 07N16W 02N29W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 46W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 01S48W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 05N BETWEEN 37W-51W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH AXIS FROM WESTERN MINNESOTA SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND FAR WEST TEXAS THAT IS PROVIDING MOSTLY SW UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF THIS MORNING. FURTHERMORE...THE EXTENSION OF THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING EASTWARD OVER THE NE CONUS SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT DRAPED FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM MELBOURNE TO FORT MYERS AND INTO THE SE GULF TO 26N83W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE SE GULF TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 22N88W AND MEANDERS SW ALONG INTERIOR SOUTHERN MEXICO COAST TO 18N94W. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO OVERRUN THE FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN AND SW GULF WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 210 NM NW OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ELSEWHERE THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N90W. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC BRINGING MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS GULF COAST LATE SUNDAY USHERING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TO THE WESTERN GULF THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES VERY DRY AIR ALOFT OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA BASIN WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN ACROSS CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS N-NE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC AND BEYOND BERMUDA NEAR 32N65W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC ALSO EXTENDS AN AXIS INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 15N E OF 70W. AT THE SURFACE... FRESH TO STRONG TRADES REMAIN PERSISTENT DUE TO A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED WELL EAST OF BERMUDA NEAR 31N52W. PATCHES OF ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE QUICKLY WESTWARD WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING AN AREA OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN S OF 19N W OF 80W...INCLUDING COASTAL WESTERN PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND SE NICARAGUA. A STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY DRAPED NORTH OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS SW ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE DIFFUSE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE LIFTING BACK NORTHWARD OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NE CONUS IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT ANALYZED OFFSHORE OF THE EASTERN U.S. SEABOARD FROM 32N76W S-SW TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR MELBOURNE. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES MID-LEVEL MOISTURE OVERRUNNING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 180 NM NW OF THE FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED WELL EAST OF BERMUDA NEAR 31N52W. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE S OF 22N BETWEEN 40W-65W WITH SURFACE EASTERLIES IN THE RANGE OF 20 TO 25 KT. AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS AROUND 06/0108 UTC DEPICTED THE AREA OF STRONGEST WINDS NE OF PUERTO RICO AND NORTH OF THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS. ELSEWHERE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS INFLUENCED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1036 MB HIGH WITH MEAN CENTER OVER THE IBERIAN PENINSULA NEAR 42N04W. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH ALONG 32N20W TO 26N40W. A WEAK COLD FRONT BRIDGES THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH EAST OF BERMUDA AND AFOREMENTIONED EASTERN ATLC SURFACE RIDGE...WITH THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING ALONG 32N37W TO 29N46W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN