000 AXNT20 KNHC 060554 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST SUN FEB 06 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 08N13W 02N23W 01N42W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 46W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 01S48W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-04N BETWEEN 25W-32W AND FROM 02N-05N BETWEEN 36W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH AXIS FROM THE DAKOTAS SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND FAR WEST TEXAS THAT IS PROVIDING MOSTLY SW UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF THIS EVENING. FURTHERMORE... THE EXTENSION OF THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING EASTWARD OVER THE NE CONUS SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT DRAPED FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM MELBOURNE TO FORT MYERS AND INTO THE SE GULF TO 23N85W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND INTERIOR SOUTHERN MEXICO. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO OVERRUN THE FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 180 NM NW OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ELSEWHERE THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N92W. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC BRINGING MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS GULF COAST LATE SUNDAY USHERING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. CARIBBEAN SEA... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES VERY DRY AIR ALOFT OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA BASIN WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA ALONG 76W TO THE BAHAMAS AND THEN N-NE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC BEYOND BERMUDA NEAR 32N65W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC ALSO EXTENDS AN AXIS INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 15N E OF 70W. AT THE SURFACE...FRESH TO STRONG TRADES REMAIN PERSISTENT DUE TO A RELATIVELY STRONG 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED NORTH OF THE AREA WELL EAST OF BERMUDA NEAR 31N55W. PATCHES OF ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE QUICKLY WESTWARD WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING AN AREA OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 14N W OF 78W...AND AN AREA FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 78W-86W. A STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND PENINSULA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE DIFFUSE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE DRIFTING BACK NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO LATE SUNDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NE CONUS IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT ANALYZED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD FROM CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA NEAR 36N76W S-SW TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR MELBOURNE. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES MID-LEVEL MOISTURE OVERRUNNING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 180 NM NW OF THE COLD FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED WELL EAST OF BERMUDA NEAR 31N55W. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE S OF 23N BETWEEN 40W-70W WITH SURFACE EASTERLIES IN THE RANGE OF 20 TO 25 KT. AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS AROUND 06/0108 UTC DEPICTED THE AREA OF STRONGEST WINDS NE OF PUERTO RICO AND NORTH OF THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS. ELSEWHERE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS INFLUENCED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1036 MB HIGH WITH MEAN CENTER OVER THE IBERIAN PENINSULA NEAR 42N06W. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH ALONG 32N23W TO 27N40W. A WEAK COLD FRONT BRIDGES THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH EAST OF BERMUDA AND AFOREMENTIONED EASTERN ATLC SURFACE RIDGE...WITH THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING ALONG 32N40W TO 28N47W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN