000 AXNT20 KNHC 052320 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST SAT FEB 05 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM SIERRA LEONE AT 8N13W TO 3N20W TO 1N40W TO BRAZIL AT EQ48W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST THE OF WEST AFRICA FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 4W-9W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 29W-31W...AND FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 42W-45W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM E OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND CONTINUES TO S MEXICO ALONG 31N79W 21N87W 17N94W. A 1020 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N93W. OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO W OF THE COLD FRONT TO THE HIGH CENTER. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS RAIN OVER THE NE GULF...THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND S GEORGIA FROM 28N-32N BETWEEN 80-88W MOVING E. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE NW GULF ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS. 10 KT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS ARE OVER THE W GULF AROUND THE HIGH WHILE 10 KT SE WINDS ARE IN THE WARM AIRMASS E OF COLD FRONT. THE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 40'S AND 50'S ALONG THE COAST OF THE N GULF STATES...AND IN THE 80'S OVER W CUBA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER TEXAS AND THE NW GULF SUPPORTING THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. A 90-130 KT JETSTREAM IS OVER THE NW GULF N OF 22N W OF 90W. SOME HIGH CLOUD IS NOTED OVER THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AND THE NE GULF. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA HAS STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR...THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE TO THE W ATLANTIC AND EXTEND FROM 30N75W TO S FLORIDA WITH CONVECTION. THERE WILL BE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT OVER FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF. ALSO THE UPPER LEVEL JETSTREAM WILL INCREASE TO 110-150 KT OVER THE N GULF N OF 26N. CARIBBEAN SEA... AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND S MEXICO ALONG 21N87W 17N94W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. 10-15 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. 15-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN E OF 80W WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA...AND OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. A 1006 MB LOW IS CENTERED INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 9N75W. PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS DOTS THE CARIBBEAN ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND JAMAICA. MORE SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO BELIZE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 77W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA SUPPRESSING CONVECTION. EXPECT THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR...THE FRONT TO OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO RETROGRADE N AND DISSIPATE. ALSO EXPECT THE TRADEWINDS TO CONTINUE TO ADVECT SHOWERS W OVER THE CARIBBEAN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT HAS JUST MOVED OFF THE COAST OF NE FLORIDA PRODUCING SHOWERS AND RAIN N OF 29N W OF 79W. A 1024 MB HIGH IS FURTHER E OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 32N58W. THE TAIL END OF A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 31N46W TO 30N50W TO 30N55W. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM N OF THE FRONT. A 1033 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER PORTUGAL NEAR 41N8W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO 30N30W. MOSTLY EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW IS NOTED OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM W AFRICA TO 50W FROM 20N-30N...WHILE THE USUAL TRADEWINDS ARE S OF 20N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N W OF 60W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS N OF 10N BETWEEN 30W-60W WITH EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL LOWS AT 15N55W...AND 21N39W. EXPECT...THE COLD FRONT TO BE MOVE E TO 30N75W AND EXTEND SW TO S FLORIDA IN 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA