000 AXNT20 KNHC 051149 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST SAT FEB 05 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 07N11W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 27W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 02S43W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 05N BETWEEN 15W-26W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. PLAINS WITH AXIS FROM IOWA THROUGH WEST TEXAS THAT IS PROVIDING MOSTLY SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF THIS MORNING. FURTHERMORE...THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS A 1011 MB LOW CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 31N86W WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING S-SW FROM THE LOW ALONG 22N90W TO THE SOUTHERN MEXICO COAST NEAR 18N95W. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES SCATTERED SHOWERS EAST OF THE COLD FRONT OVER THE NE GULF N OF 27N...EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA AND PORTIONS OF SE GEORGIA AND MUCH OF SOUTH CAROLINA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT S OF 27N. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF W OF THE FRONT IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED ON A 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 22N98W. WHILE CURRENTLY PROVIDING N-NW WINDS UP TO 20 KT W OF THE FRONT...THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS BRINGING MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY SATURDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS GULF COAST LATE SUNDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES VERY DRY AIR ALOFT OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA BASIN WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 20N80W NE INTO THE W ATLC...AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ALONG 16N E OF 70W. THIS OVERALL PATTERN IS ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY SUBSIDENT NORTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN. AT THE SURFACE...FRESH TO STRONG TRADES REMAIN PERSISTENT DUE TO A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE AREA EAST OF BERMUDA NEAR 33N62W. PATCHES OF ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY ARE NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS AND HISPANIOLA FROM 12N-20N BETWEEN 71W-74W...THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 12N W OF 81W INCLUDING COASTAL WESTERN PANAMA AND MUCH OF COSTA RICA...AND AN AREA WEST OF JAMAICA FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 80W-87W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. IS SUPPORTING A 1013 MB LOW CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA NEAR 34N76W WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW TO NEAR 31N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE REMAINING MOSTLY NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AND INLAND ACROSS MUCH OF SE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA. LATER TODAY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD PROVIDING FOR THE LOW PRESSURE AREA TO DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN WITH SW SURFACE FLOW TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. BY LATE SATURDAY THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO POSITION OFFSHORE OF THE SE CONUS ACROSS THE W ATLC TO THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A 1024 MB HIGH CENTERED EAST OF BERMUDA NEAR 33N62W. ELSEWHERE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS INFLUENCED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A STRONG 1039 MB HIGH WITH MEAN CENTER OVER THE IBERIAN PENINSULA NEAR 41N06W. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH ALONG 32N27W TO 27N44W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN