000 AXNT20 KNHC 050555 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST SAT FEB 05 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 06N11W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 30W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 02S43W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 05N BETWEEN 13W-24W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. PLAINS WITH AXIS FROM IOWA THROUGH WEST TEXAS THAT IS PROVIDING MOSTLY SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF THIS EVENING. FURTHERMORE...THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS A 1011 MB LOW CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF NEAR 30N87W WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING S-SW FROM THE LOW ALONG 23N90W 21N91W TO THE SOUTHERN MEXICO COAST NEAR 19N91W. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS EAST OF THE COLD FRONT OVER THE NE GULF N OF 28N E OF 86W...EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND A LARGE PORTION OF GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT S OF 28N. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF W OF THE FRONT IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED ON A 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO NEAR 28N104W. WHILE CURRENTLY PROVIDING N-NW WINDS UP TO 20 KT W OF THE FRONT...THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS BRINGING MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY SATURDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS GULF COAST LATE SUNDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES VERY DRY AIR ALOFT OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA BASIN WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING ALONG 80W FROM WEST OF JAMAICA N-NE TO THE W ATLC...AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ALONG 17N E OF 72W. THIS OVERALL PATTERN IS ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY SUBSIDENT WESTERLY OR WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN. AT THE SURFACE...FRESH TO STRONG TRADES REMAIN DUE TO A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR BERMUDA. PATCHES OF ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY ARE NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...OVER THE ABC ISLANDS S OF 13N BETWEEN 63W-70W...OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS AND HISPANIOLA FROM 13N-20N BETWEEN 68W-73W...THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 12N W OF 82W INCLUDING COASTAL WESTERN PANAMA AND MUCH OF COSTA RICA...AND AN AREA WEST OF JAMAICA FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 78W-82W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. IS SUPPORTING A WEAK 1015 MB LOW CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR 33N77W WITH A STATIONARY FRONT MEANDERING SW TO THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR SAINT AUGUSTINE NEAR 30N81W...THEN WESTWARD INTO THE NE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS ALONG 30N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE REMAINING MOSTLY NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AND INLAND ACROSS MUCH OF GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA. LATER TODAY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD PROVIDING THE FRONT WITH MOVEMENT ONCE AGAIN AND BY LATE SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND OFFSHORE OF THE SE CONUS ACROSS THE W ATLC TO THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER BERMUDA NEAR 33N64W. ELSEWHERE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS INFLUENCED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A STRONG 1039 MB HIGH WITH MEAN CENTER OVER THE IBERIAN PENINSULA NEAR 42N06W. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH ALONG 32N27W TO 28N43W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN