000 AXNT20 KNHC 050003 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST FRI FEB 04 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM LIBERIA AT 6N11W TO 3N20W TO 1N30W TO BRAZIL AT 3S44W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST THE OF WEST AFRICA FROM EQ-3N BETWEEN 2W-8W...AND FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 10W-15W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 25W-28W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1012 MB LOW IS CENTERED S OF MISSISSIPPI NEAR 29N88W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 25N90W 19N92W 18N84W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS E FROM THE LOW TO N FLORIDA ALONG 30N87W 29N82W 31N80W. OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO W OF THE COLD FRONT. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS RAIN OVER THE NE GULF...THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND S ALABAMA FROM 28N-32N BETWEEN 85-88W MOVING E. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE SE GULF TOGETHER WITH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA. 20-25 KT NW WINDS ARE OVER THE W GULF W OF THE COLD FRONT WHILE 10-15 KT SE WINDS ARE IN THE WARM AIRMASS E OF COLD FRONT. THE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 40'S AND 50'S ALONG THE COAST OF THE N GULF STATES...AND IN THE 80'S OVER W CUBA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER TEXAS IS SUPPORTING THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. A 90-110 KT JETSTREAM IS OVER THE N GULF N OF 28N. SOME HIGH CLOUD IS NOTED OVER THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AND THE NE GULF. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA HAS STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR...THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM 30N80W TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH CONVECTION. THERE WILL BE A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. ALSO THE UPPER LEVEL JETSTREAM WILL INCREASE TO 110-150 KT OVER THE N GULF N OF 27N. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... 10-15 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. 15-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN E OF 80W WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA...AND OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 9N75W. PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS DOTS THE CARIBBEAN ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND JAMAICA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 80W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA SUPPRESSING CONVECTION. EXPECT THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR...RAIN AND SHOWERS TO ADVECT OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DUE TO THE COLD FRONT. ALSO EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE TAIL END OF A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N60W TO 30N70W. OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE FRONT. A 1035 MB HIGH IS CENTERED W OF PORTUGAL NEAR 41N12W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO 32N30W AND CONTINUES TO 28N43W. MOSTLY EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW IS NOTED FROM W AFRICA TO THE BAHAMAS FROM 20N-28N...WHILE THE USUAL TRADEWINDS ARE S OF 20N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N W OF 60W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS N OF 10N BETWEEN 20W-60W WITH EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL LOWS AT 16N53W...AND 30N23W. EXPECT...THE COLD FRONT TO BE OFF THE COAST OF N FLORIDA IN 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA