000
AXNT20 KNHC 041120
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
705 AM EST FRI FEB 04 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1045 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM 5N1W TO 3N20W TO 1S37W. SCATTERED STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE EAST OF 10W.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO LOCALLY 
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 7N BETWEEN 10W AND 51W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N63W TO 31N67W. A STATIONARY
FRONT CONTINUES FROM 31N67W TO 30N75W...THE FLORIDA EAST COAST
NEAR 28N...ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO...AND THEN SOUTHWARD T0 THE EASTERN ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE
TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE COASTAL PLAINS FROM THE DEEP 
SOUTH OF TEXAS TO THE CENTRAL COASTAL PLAINS OF LOUISIANA AT
THE MOMENT...HELPING THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FORM OF FREEZING 
PRECIPITATION IN THOSE AREAS. THE TEMPERATURES ARE COMPARATIVELY 
WARMER TO THE EAST OF SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. BROKEN TO 
OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS/POSSIBLE RAIN/FOG/HAZE AND NOT-YET FREEZING 
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE GULF COASTAL PLAINS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL 
COASTAL LOUISIANA TO THE SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA GULF COAST.
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE AREA. A SURFACE 
RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS...CONTINUING ALONG 
THE MEXICO GULF COAST...INTO THE CENTRAL ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC 
OF MEXICO. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF
OF MEXICO FROM 21N TO 28N TO THE WEST OF 95W WITH SEA HEIGHTS
RANGING FROM 8 FEET TO 12 FEET DURING THE NEXT SIX HOURS.
GALE-FORCE WIND CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW MOVES ON TOP OF LOW LEVEL TO 
MIDDLE LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW...IN AN AREA THAT ALSO IS COVERED
BY DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. 
BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE 
RAIN ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 13N BETWEEN 60W AND 68W...TO THE NORTH 
OF 13N BETWEEN 60W AND 76W MOVING AND/OR HAVING MOVED ALREADY
FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
TO THE SOUTH OF 15N BETWEEN 75W AND PANAMA/COSTA RICA/
NICARAGUA...FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 78W AND 81W...AND
FROM COASTAL HONDURAS TO 19N BETWEEN 85W AND 87W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW THAT ORIGINATES IN THE GULF
OF MEXICO ALSO SPANS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 60W.
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW MOVES AROUND A 17N53W CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION CENTER. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N36W 
22N47W...TO THE CENTER...TO 12N61W IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA 
ISLANDS. ONE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 62W/63W FROM 22N TO 27N.
A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 54W FROM 12N TO 24N. ISOLATED
MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 47W AND 54W.
A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 35N28W 33N36W 29N48W TO 28N57W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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