000
AXNT20 KNHC 040551
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
105 AM EST FRI FEB 04 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM SOUTHERN COASTAL LIBERIA TO 4N14W 5N24W 2N32W 4N40W...
CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 44W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL
NEAR 3S46W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 7N BETWEEN 8W AND 50W.
STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 15 NM 
TO 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 1N5W 3N ALONG THE PRIME MERIDIAN.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N68W TO 31N76W. A STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES FROM 31N76W TO THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NEAR 27N...
ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 28N84W. A WARM 
FRONT HAS BEEN PUSHING NORTHWARD A BIT BETWEEN 28N84W AND 
25N90W. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY NEAR 25N90W AND IT 
CONTINUES TO THE EASTERN ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. BROKEN TO 
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FRONTAL 
BOUNDARY. FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
TEXAS AT THE MOMENT...HELPING THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FORM OF 
FREEZING PRECIPITATION IN THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS. THE 
TEMPERATURES ARE COMPARATIVELY WARMER TO THE EAST OF TEXAS. 
NOT-YET FREEZING PRECIPITATION IS IN THE GULF COASTAL PLAINS 
FROM LOUISIANA TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. UPPER LEVEL 
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE AREA. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES 
THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS...CONTINUING ALONG THE MEXICO 
GULF COAST...INTO THE CENTRAL ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO. 

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW MOVES ON TOP OF LOW LEVEL TO 
MIDDLE LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW...IN AN AREA THAT ALSO IS COVERED
BY DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. 
BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE 
RAIN ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 13N BETWEEN 58W AND 65W...MOVING FROM 
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA 
ELSEWHERE TO THE EAST OF 70W...FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 70W AND 
76W...FROM 17N TO 19N BETWEEN 70W AND 85W...TO THE SOUTH OF 14N 
BETWEEN 78W AND CENTRAL AMERICA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW THAT ORIGINATES IN THE GULF
OF MEXICO ALSO SPANS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 60W.
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW MOVES AROUND A 18N54W CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION CENTER. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
32N37W 22N48W...TO THE CENTER...TO 14N58W.  ONE SURFACE TROUGH
IS ALONG 27N61W 25N63W...TO 22N63W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS 
ALONG 21N56W 17N55W 13N55W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE
FROM 17N TO 24N BETWEEN 47W AND 55W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES 
THROUGH 34N35W TO 30N53W...AND TO A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER 
THAT IS NEAR 29N68W. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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MT