000 AXNT20 KNHC 031156 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST THU FEB 03 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... FROM SOUTH CENTRAL COASTAL IVORY COAST TO 1N20W 1N33W...CURVING THROUGH THE EQUATOR ALONG 40W TO 2S43W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ARE FROM 1N TO 3N BETWEEN 3W AND 5W...FROM 3N TO 4N BETWEEN 6W AND 7W...FROM 1N TO 2N BETWEEN 8W AND 10W...WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 3N17W 3N22W 3N26W 4N30W...FROM 2S TO 4N BETWEEN 30W AND 33W...AND FROM 3N TO 4N BETWEEN 39W AND 41W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 5N TO THE EAST OF 51W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N76W TO 31N78W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 31N78W TO THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NEAR 28N...INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE EASTERN ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. GALE-FORCE WIND CONDITIONS EXIST IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE REST OF THE STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD FROM THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC BEYOND 30N109W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS... CONTINUING ALONG THE MEXICO GULF COAST... INTO THE CENTRAL ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS ALONG AND TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE COLD FRONT...MOVING FROM CENTRAL MEXICO NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO BEYOND LOUISIANA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN A 15 NM TO 30 NM RADIUS OF 25N88W...AND WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 32N76W 30N84W... FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW MOVES ON TOP OF LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW...IN AN AREA THAT ALSO IS COVERED BY DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAIN ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 14N TO THE EAST OF 63W...TO THE SOUTH OF 14N BETWEEN 64W AND 71W...TO THE NORTH OF 16N BETWEEN 60W AND EASTERN JAMAICA MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... TO THE SOUTH OF 15N TO THE WEST OF 79W REACHING CENTRAL AMERICA...AND FROM 15N TO 20N TO THE WEST OF 80W. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA MAINTAINING FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL EARLY ON SATURDAY. IT IS FORECAST TO STALL AND DISSIPATE IN THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA THROUGH SUNDAY. THE WARNING FOR GALE-FORCE WINDS NEAR THE COLOMBIA COAST FROM SIX HOURS AGO HAS ENDED. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW THAT ORIGINATES IN THE GULF OF MEXICO ALSO SPANS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 66W. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW MOVES AROUND A 22N56W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 14N TO 27N BETWEEN 43W AND 60W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 20N53W 14N52W. A SURFACE 1018 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 26N60W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 15N TO 25N BETWEEN 48W AND 56W. THE POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION WITHIN ANY RADIUS OF THE 1019 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS DIMINISHING WITH TIME. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 19N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 54W. A 1037 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 37N23W. ONE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE 1037 MB HIGH CENTER TO 35N42W...THROUGH 32N54W TO 30N70W AND CENTRAL CUBA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT