000 AXNT20 KNHC 030547 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST THU FEB 03 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... FROM SOUTHERN COASTAL LIBERIA TO 1N23W TO 3N34W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 43W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 2S45W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ARE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 3N3W 2N8W 2N12W 2N16W 3N23W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 4N BETWEEN 24W AND 41W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 4N BETWEEN 42W AND 50W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N79W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NEAR 28N. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY FROM 28N ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE EASTERN ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. GALE-FORCE WIND CONDITIONS EXIST IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE REST OF THE STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD FROM THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC BEYOND 30N109W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS... CONTINUING ALONG THE MEXICO GULF COAST...INTO THE CENTRAL ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS ALONG AND TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE COLD FRONT...MOVING FROM CENTRAL MEXICO NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO BEYOND LOUISIANA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 23N BETWEEN 80W AND 88W INCLUDING IN NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...AND IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW MOVES ON TOP OF LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW...IN AN AREA THAT ALSO IS COVERED BY DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAIN ARE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN 54W AND 61W...FROM 17N TO 19N BETWEEN 69W AND 76W NEAR EASTERN JAMAICA...TO THE SOUTH OF 16N BETWEEN 77W AND 83W ALONG THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS INCREASED SUFFICIENTLY ENOUGH IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW IN ORDER TO SUPPORT GALE-FORCE WIND CONDITIONS FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 75W AND 78W OFF THE COLOMBIA COAST. EXPECT SEA HEIGHTS TO RANGE FROM 8 FEET TO 14 FEET. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW THAT ORIGINATES IN THE GULF OF MEXICO ALSO SPANS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 66W. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW MOVES AROUND A 21N55W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 14N TO 27N BETWEEN 43W AND 60W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 20N53W 14N54W. A SURFACE 1019 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 27N58W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 16N TO 25N BETWEEN 49W AND 53W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN A 120 NM RADIUS OF THE 1019 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 19N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 50W. A 1039 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 37N25W. ONE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE 1039 MB HIGH CENTER TO 36N52W... THROUGH 33N60W TO 27N70W TO ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT