000 AXNT20 KNHC 022350 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST WED FEB 02 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGE THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM CENTRAL LIBERIA NEAR 5N10W ALONG 4N20W 2N33W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 39W TO NEAR 2S44W. ISOLATED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 5N BETWEEN 28W-42W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS EVENING WITH A COLD PORTION EXTENDING FROM NE FLORIDA NEAR JACKSONVILLE TO NEAR 25N88W CONTINUING AS A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N92W. MAINLY NLY WINDS OF 20-25 KTS ARE BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER TO THE COAST...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG A 150 NM SWATH FROM MOBILE ALABAMA TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. ALOFT...MAINLY SWLY FLOW COVERS THE GULF BETWEEN A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE WRN CONUS...AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND W ATLC. A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH NEAR THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUPPORTS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER VIRGINIA OF WHICH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ASSOCIATED. EXPECT THE NRN PORTION OF THE FRONT TO CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS NRN FLORIDA AS THE SRN HALF STAYS STATIONARY AND EVENTUALLY FORMS A LOW PRESSURE CENTER BEFORE MOVING ACROSS THE BASIN FRI AND SAT. CARIBBEAN SEA... A DRY AND SUBSIDENT AIRMASS SITS OVER THE CARIBBEAN AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM S AMERICAN TO THE W ATLC PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE BASIN. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN BROAD LOW PRESSURE AND HIGHER PRESSURE ACROSS THE SW N ATLC IS SUPPORTING STRONG TRADEWINDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND ERN CARIBBEAN WITH GALE FORCE WINDS N OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. EXPECT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN THURSDAY AND SUPPORT THE STRONG TRADES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FAIR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE FAR SW N ATLC IS EXPERIENCING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER FOR THE TIME BEING AS SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BLOWING OVER NRN FLORIDA IN MOIST SWLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE W ATLC ALONG 70W. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS NRN FLORIDA SHOULD EMERGE INTO THE ATLC WATERS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BRINGING CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. TO THE E...A WEAK 1018 MB LOW IS SPINNING NEAR 27N58W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM IT ALONG 28N56W 25N55W 22N57W SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM 19N-24N BETWEEN 53W-56W. THE LOW IS SUPPORTED BY A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH ALONG 54W. THE UPPER TROUGH ALSO SUPPORTS ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH FROM 13N51W TO 21N50W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BASIN IS DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A PAIR OF 1038 MB...AND 1037 MB HIGHS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AZORES ISLANDS WHICH ARE PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS SUPPORTED BY BROAD UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON