000
AXNT20 KNHC 021741
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
105 PM EST WED FEB 02 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGE THROUGH 
1735 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
FROM CENTRAL COASTAL LIBERIA TO 5N10W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR 
ALONG 37W...TO 2S46W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG RAINSHOWERS  
ARE WITHIN 100 NM N OF THE ITCZ E OF 23W. OTHER AREA OF SIMILAR 
CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 27W-35W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SSW FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA CROSSING THE GULF 
ALONG 27N85W 23N90W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ABOUT 19N93W. THIS 
FRONT IS INTRODUCING STRONG N-NW WINDS OF 20-25 KT OR NEAR GALE 
FORCE WINDS.  THIS FRONT HAS REDUCED ITS EASTWARD SPEED DURING 
THE PAST 6 HOURS TO AN ALMOST STATIONARY FRONT. INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THAT MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY 
ASSOCIATED TO THIS FRONT IS FOUND N OF 25N WITHIN 30 NM ON 
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. SHORT RANGE COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST 
THAT THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE INTO A STATIONARY FRONT 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE 
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INFLUENCES MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA BASIN 
WITH VERY DRY STABLE AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE EVIDENT ON WATER 
VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...SATELLITE IMAGERY 
REVEALS AREAS OF ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON OVER 
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF 65W.  CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO 
REMAIN FAIR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
CURRENTLY...THE ONLY SYSTEM OF INTEREST ON THE ATLANTIC OCEAN IS 
A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 30N57W TO 23N56W. A SURFACE LOW 
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED IN THE THROUGH LOCATED AT 29N57W. 
MODERATE TO STRONG ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE E OF THIS SYSTEM FROM 
25N-29N WITHIN 48W AND 51W. THIS SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY A 
MID-UPPER LEVEL ELONGATED LOW SPINNING NEAR 25N56W. THIS SYSTEM 
IS SLOWLY MOVING SW WHILE IT DISSIPATES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 
THE REMAINING OF THE ATLANTIC IS DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGING 
AND FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS AS SUGGESTED BY THE STRONG DRY AND 
STABLE AIR SUBSIDENCE S OF 22N IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. IN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS EXPECT IN THE FAR W ATLANTIC SHOWERS 
ASSOCIATED TO THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT EMERGING OF THE 
SOUTH EAST US COAST.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NAR/FG