000
AXNT20 KNHC 021150
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
705 AM EST WED FEB 02 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM CENTRAL COASTAL LIBERIA TO 2N20W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR 
ALONG 30W...TO 3S39W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO LOCALLY 
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 6N TO THE EAST OF 52W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE WIND FLOW IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS SOUTHWESTERLY...PARALLEL 
TO THE NOW-CURRENT COLD FRONT THAT HAS BEEN MOVING THROUGH THE 
GULF OF MEXICO. THE FRONT IS MOVING EASTWARD SLOWLY...AND IT IS
FORECAST TO BECOME STATIONARY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM SIX HOURS AGO NOW IS MORE AND MORE IN THE 
ATLANTIC OCEAN ALONG 75W/76W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM SOUTH 
TEXAS TO 21N98W IN CENTRAL MEXICO. THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH
THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TO 
20N98W. GALE-FORCE WIND CONDITIONS EXIST TO THE SOUTH OF 21N TO 
THE WEST OF 94W WITH SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 FEET TO 11 FEET.
A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES IN MEXICO FROM 20N98W BEYOND 
30N107W. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 27N TO 28N BETWEEN 84W AND 86W. BROKEN
TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
COLD FRONT...MOVING FROM CENTRAL MEXICO NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE GULF OF MEXICO BEYOND LOUISIANA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW MOVES ON TOP OF LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE 
LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW...IN AN AREA THAT ALSO IS COVERED BY DRY AIR 
IN SUBSIDENCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. BROKEN TO 
OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAIN ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 19N 
BETWEEN 59W AND 64W ON TOP OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA 
ISLANDS...IN GENERAL TO THE SOUTH OF 18N BETWEEN 64W AND 
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA...AND FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 81W AND 86W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS 
ARE OCCURRING NEAR AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER 
THAT IS NEAR 27N57W. CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
FROM 19N TO 32N BETWEEN 50W AND 65W. THE PRECIPITATION COVERS 
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 23N TO 30N BETWEEN 50W AND 55W.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 30N54W 27N56W 23N58W. ONE SURFACE 
RIDGE STRETCHES FROM BERMUDA TO 30N70W...TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS 
NEAR 25N79W...INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N86W. 
A SECOND SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N34W TO 26N43W TO 21N48W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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MT