000
AXNT20 KNHC 020555
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
105 AM EST WED FEB 02 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM CENTRAL COASTAL LIBERIA TO 3N20W 2N30W...CROSSING THE 
EQUATOR ALONG 40W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 3S45W.
ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 6N TO THE EAST OF 51W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE WIND FLOW IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS PARALLEL TO THE NOW-
CURRENT COLD FRONT THAT HAS BEEN MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO BECOME STATIONARY. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 32N79W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS 
FLORIDA AND BEYOND CUBA. A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 25N96W BEYOND 
31N99W. THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH WESTERN ALABAMA...TOWARD
ALABAMA'S BORDER WITH SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI...INTO THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TOWARD THE MEXICO GULF COAST NEAR 
21N98W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD IN MEXICO
FROM 21N98W BEYOND 30N106W. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE 
WITHIN 15 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 27N86W 30N84W. RAINSHOWERS ARE 
POSSIBLE WITHIN 15 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 25N90W 21N97W. BROKEN
TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
COLD FRONT...MOVING FROM CENTRAL MEXICO NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE GULF OF MEXICO TOWARD LOUISIANA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW MOVES ON TOP OF LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE 
LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW...IN AN AREA THAT ALSO IS COVERED BY DRY AIR 
IN SUBSIDENCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. BROKEN TO 
OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAIN ARE FROM 11N TO 19N 
BETWEEN 58W AND 62W... 17N TO 22N BETWEEN 58W AND 61W...FROM THE 
VENEZUELA COAST TO 14N BETWEEN 63W AND 70W...IN GENERAL TO THE 
EAST OF 74W...BETWEEN 76W AND 85W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE DEEP LAYER CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH FROM 24 HOURS AGO
DISSIPATED IN SOME PARTS AND DISAPPEARED...AND THEN RE-FORMED
TO THE STAGE THAT IT HAS NOW. THE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 31N55W 
TO 20N60W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS ALONG
29N54W 26N57W 22N58W. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 24N TO 32N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W.
A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N27W TO 28N35W 25N44W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT