000 AXNT20 KNHC 011757 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST TUE FEB 01 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE COAST OF COTE D'IVOIRE NEAR 4N6W WESTWARD ALONG EQ20W 2N35W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL AT 2S49W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 5N BETWEEN 12W-20W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ ALONG 26W FROM 1S-2N GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 22W-29W. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM N OF THE AXIS W OF 33W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS. THIS FEATURE IS SUPPORTING A VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INLAND OVER SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SSW FROM THE LOW ACROSS LOUISIANA AND THE NW GULF ALONG 30N93W 25N94W 22N97W. THIS FRONT IS INTRODUCING STRONG N-NW WINDS UP TO NEAR GALE FORCE AS IT SWEEPS EASTWARD AT ABOUT 20 KT. DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS A STRONG LINE OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 25 NM AHEAD OF THE ANALYZED FRONT. MARINE OBS ACROSS THE GULF INDICATE A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 24N BETWEEN 85W AND THE FRONT...GENERATING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW 15-25 KT GUSTING TO NEAR GALE FORCE N OF 27N W OF 88W. THIS FLOW IS BRINGING A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS FROM THE FAR SE GULF AND NW CARIBBEAN...NOTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SHORT RANGE COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ENE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS THE N CENTRAL GULF AND INTO THE EASTERN BASIN. DUE TO THE FAST PACED NATURE OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY... FOR MORE UPDATED INFORMATION...REEFER TO YOUR LOCAL COASTAL WFO FOR FURTHER DETAILS ON THIS FRONT. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE CARIBBEAN ARE DOMINATED BY MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. AT SURFACE... MARINE OBS SHOW FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN E OF 81W. THIS FLOW TURNS SW-WARD S OF 15S W OF 81W...BANKING UP SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 25 NM ALONG THE COASTS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA W OF 80W. SE FLOW UP TO 20 KT IS NOTED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN...WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS THE NW AND N CENTRAL GULF. THE OVERALL FLOW ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO ADVECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC INTO THE SE CARIBBEAN GENERATING AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF 13N E OF 67W. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE BASIN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATES THE FAR WEST ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH WELL N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 42N61W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 2955 TO 25N58W GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 25N-31N BETWEEN 50W-58W. A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 25N62W TO 22N65W WITH SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. FARTHER EAST OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC...A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1036 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 38N21W CONTINUES TO PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA E OF 50W. STRONG NE WINDS UP TO 30 KT ARE OVER THE FAR E ATLC E OF 20W N OF 17N. THIS AREA OF STRONG NE WINDS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AS THE HIGH STRENGTHENS NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA