000
AXNT20 KNHC 011131
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
705 AM EST TUE FEB 01 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1045 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM SOUTHERN LIBERIA TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 25W...ALONG THE 
EQUATOR TO 39W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 3S44W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
1S TO 5N BETWEEN 10W AND 20W...FROM 1S TO 6N BETWEEN 20W AND 
30W...FROM 4N TO 6N BETWEEN 35W AND 40W...AND FROM 1N TO 4N
BETWEEN 43W AND 51W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DIGGING INTO NORTHERN MEXICO NEAR 
25N105W. THIS TROUGH IS PART OF THE NEXT BIG FRONTAL BOUNDARY 
THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO 
LATER TODAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CUTS ACROSS TEXAS DIVIDING IT
IN A NORTH-SOUTH SENSE. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN THE 
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IS DEPICTED IN THE MOVEMENT OF THE HIGH 
CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST 
LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAIN/HAZE/FOG ARE IN THE COASTAL PLAINS 
FROM TEXAS TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE 
SAME CONDITIONS EXIST IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE U.S.A. GULF
COAST STATES.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW MOVES ON TOP OF LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE 
LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW...IN AN AREA THAT ALSO IS COVERED BY DRY AIR 
IN SUBSIDENCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. BROKEN TO 
OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAIN ARE FROM 17N TO 22N 
BETWEEN 58W AND 61W...FROM THE VENEZUELA COAST TO 14N BETWEEN 
60W AND 70W...AROUND HISPANIOLA FROM 18N TO 22N BETWEEN 67W AND 
74W...FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 69W AND 73W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 
14N TO THE WEST OF 78W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A DEEP LAYER CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N52W 
TO 28N55W TO 21N58W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT
THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N47W TO 28N56W AND 25N61W. A SURFACE TROUGH
IS ALONG 25N64W 23N68W 20N69W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE TROUGH 
REALLY IS JUST AN EXTENSION OF THE STATIONARY FRONT AND/OR IT IS 
JUST A SEPARATE FEATURE BY ITSELF. SCATTERED MODERATE 
RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 26N TO 29N 
BETWEEN 52W AND 56W...AND FROM 24N TO 26N BETWEEN 61W AND 63W.
OTHER RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 23N TO 30N BETWEEN 
50W AND 70W. A COLD FRONT IS MOVING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE U.S.A.
EAST COAST...NOW BETWEEN 30N AND 31N BETWEEN 78W AND THE COAST
OF SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES 
AROUND A RIDGE THAT PASSES THROUGH 34N27W TO 31N35W TO 25N50W.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS SURROUNDED BY DRY AIR IN
SUBSIDENCE PASSES THROUGH 32N7W IN MOROCCO TO 21N22W TO 12N38W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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MT