000 AXNT20 KNHC 312346 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST MON JAN 31 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 05N10W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 30N THEN INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 03S41W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-06N BETWEEN 13W-24W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATES ACROSS THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 92W STRETCHING FROM SOUTH OF GUATEMALA NORTHWARD TO ARKANSAS. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS SUPPORTING OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS OVER THE ENTIRE BASIN THIS EVENING WITH S-SE FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT. SOUTHERLY FLOW IS FORECAST TO INCREASE OVER THE WESTERN GULF DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EJECTS EASTWARD OUT OF THE DESERT SW INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH THE ASSOCIATED AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECT TO ORGANIZE AND DEEPEN OVER TEXAS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. BY 01/1200 UTC... A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE LOW ACROSS THE NW GULF AND INTRODUCE STRONG N-NW WINDS TO THE GULF AS THE FRONT SWEEPS EASTWARD THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY WITH BRISK N-NE WINDS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY THURSDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES CONFLUENT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA BASIN THAT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT OVERALL SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC IS MAINTAINING NE-E TRADES OF 15 TO 25 KT...WITH HIGHER VALUES UP TO 30 KT OBSERVED NEAR THE COAST OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA. SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS AREAS OF ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...IN THE VICINITY OF HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA...AND OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS...OTHERWISE MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... MOSTLY ZONAL WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOMINATES THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLC W OF 50W THIS EVENING. A WEAK 1024 MB HIGH REMAINS CENTERED SE OF BERMUDA NEAR 31N62W WITH MOSTLY LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW LOCATED WEST OF A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED INTO THE AREA NEAR 32N48W EXTENDING SW ALONG 28N56W TO 25N63W. THE FRONT BECOMES MORE DIFFUSE WESTWARD TO THE SE BAHAMAS NEAR 23N73W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 48W AND 68W. FARTHER EAST OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC...A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE AZORES NEAR 38N26W CONTINUES TO PROVIDE STRONG NE WINDS FROM 15N TO 30N E OF 35W DUE TO A RELATIVELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER W AFRICA. THIS AREA OF STRONG NE WINDS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THOUGH EARLY FRIDAY AS THE HIGH STRENGTHENS NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN