000
AXNT20 KNHC 311731
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
105 PM EST MON JAN 31 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM LIBERIA NEAR 5N9W TO EQ27W  TO NE 
BRAZIL AT 3S40W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 
2N-6N BETWEEN 12W-22W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 
EQ-2N BETWEEN 9W-20W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1025 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 31N61W 
PRODUCING 10 KT SE SURFACE RETURN FLOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. 
PATCHES OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH RAIN IS OVER THE 
NE GULF AND N FLORIDA N OF 28N E OF 88W...AS CONFIRMED ON 
COMPOSITE RADAR IMAGERY. PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND 
RESIDUAL MORNING FOG ARE ALSO OVER THE W GULF AND THE BAY OF 
CAMPECHE W OF 90W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW AND STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE GULF. A 70-110 KT JETSTREAM IS OVER THE N 
GULF N OF 23N WITH STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL WINDS AND BROKEN HIGH 
CLOUDS OVER TEXAS. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR...A 1002 MB 
LOW TO FORM OVER SE TEXAS AND A COLD FRONT TO EXTEND S TO NE 
MEXICO WITH CONVECTION. LOW CEILINGS AND MORNING FOG ARE ALSO 
EXPECTED ALONG THE TEXAS COAST IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1011 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W. 10-25 KT 
TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA WITH 
STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA AND LIGHTEST WINDS 
OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH 
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE MOVING W WITH THE TRADEWINDS MAINLY ALONG 
THE COAST OF PANAMA...COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA...AND BELIZE. 
SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE S OF HISPANIOLA AND OVER JAMAICA. MORE 
SHOWERS ARE ENTERING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR BARBADOS. IN THE 
UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER CENTRAL 
AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT...CONTINUED PATCHY SHOWERS 
EMBEDDED IN THE TRADEWINDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.     

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1025 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 31N61W PRODUCING FAIR 
WEATHER. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N50W TO 26N60W. A 
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO THE S BAHAMAS NEAR 
24N71W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT N OF 26N.
A 1034 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 37N27W. A SURFACE 
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO 27N50W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE E 
ATLANTIC S OF THE CANARY ISLANDS FROM 26N19W TO 22N24W. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE TROUGH. IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N E 
OF 30W SUPPORTING THE SURFACE TROUGH. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS 
FOR...THE FRONT TO SLOWLY MOVE E TO 32N46W WITH SHOWERS...AND 
FOR THE TROUGH OVER THE E ATLANTIC TO DISSIPATE.   

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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FORMOSA