000 AXNT20 KNHC 310000 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST SUN JAN 30 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM SIERRA LEONE NEAR 7N12W WESTWARD ALONG TO 4N20W 3N30W 2N40W TO BRAZIL AT EQ50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS EAST OF 30W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM N OF THE AXIS W OF 30W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NW GULF GENERATING AN AREA OF MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE NW AND N CENTRAL BASIN. DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 100 NM OFF THE COAST OF TEXAS AND LOUISIANA BETWEEN 91W AND 95W. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ENE OVER THE NEXT 20 HOURS...AFFECTING THE COASTAL WATERS OF LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS OCCURRING ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE GULF...WITH SURFACE RIDGING BUILDING OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA BRINGING SSE 5-15 KT FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE CARIBBEAN ARE DOMINATED BY MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. AT SURFACE... FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN TURNING SW-WARD W OF 78W. STRONGER FLOW WITH GUSTS NEAR GALE FORCE ARE ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE OVERALL FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC INTO THE CARIBBEAN GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWER SCATTERED ACROSS THE BASIN. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE BASIN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LONGWAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N51W EXTENDING SW TO 23N71W. THIS BOUNDARY IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 80 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 25N...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT S OF 25N. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD WITH CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 224 HOURS. IN THE MEAN TIME...SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS BEHIND THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 30N63W. THIS FEATURE IS BRINGING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WEST ATLC. THE CENTRAL ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SHARP UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SUPPORTING A 1031 MB HIGH NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 40N28W. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR EAST ATLC SUPPORTING A SET OF DISSIPATING LOWS NEAR 21N26W AND 25N18W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED CONNECTING THESE TWO FEATURES ALONG 22N21W. WHILE A SHARP WIND SHIFT IS NOTED ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH...THIS SYSTEM IS NOT PRODUCING ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION AND IT I EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA