000 AXNT20 KNHC 300552 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST SUN JAN 30 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM LIBERIA NEAR 7N9W ALONG 3N19W 1N25W ACROSS THE EQUATOR NEAR 33W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 11W-18W AND FROM 4N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 21W-32W. CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 38W-44W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION EXTENDS AN AXIS ACROSS S MEXICO NEAR THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC ACROSS THE GULF TO OVER THE SE CONUS NEAR THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO AND THE GULF. THE BROAD SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE E GULF INTO THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH OFF THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR 27N83W AND A SECOND HIGH IN THE W ATLC. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IS OVER THE GULF TONIGHT AND COUPLED WITH THE MOISTURE ALOFT IS GENERATING DENSE MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF LINE FROM 29N89W 27N94W TO MEXICO NEAR 24N98W TO INLAND OVER THE N GULF COAST AND NE MEXICO LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH FAIR CONDITIONS TONIGHT. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT E INTO SUN MORNING INCREASING THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SPREADING E ACROSS ENTIRE GULF MON NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE TEXAS COAST TUE. THE FRONT WILL SLOW OVER THE SE WATERS WED THEN MOVE SE OF AREA THU NIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE CARIBBEAN ARE DOMINATED BY W TO NW FLOW WITH MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT COVERING THE AREA S OF 20N. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE E AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH WEAK CYCLONIC TURNING EXTENDING FROM JAMAICA NEAR 19N77W TO THE COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR 12N83W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 75 NM NW OF THIS LINE. THE TRADE WINDS ARE BANKING PATCHES OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN S OF 20N W OF 80W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN REMARKABLY CLEAR AGAIN TONIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 12N63W TO 14N71W. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE E AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THU. ATLANTIC OCEAN... SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE W ATLC W OF 65W INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED BY A A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 27N74W WITH A SECOND HIGH IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE W ATLC N OF 25N BETWEEN 57W-72W SUPPORTING A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE W/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N57W TO 24N66W WHERE IT BECOMES A SURFACE TROUGH TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. A WEAK PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N55W TO 27N57W. A RE-ENFORCING SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE W OF THE FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH 32N62W TO 29N68W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 26N AND WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC INTO THE E ATLC N OF 14N BETWEEN 30W AND THE FRONT. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH 32N22W TO AN UPPER LOW NEAR 28N25W CONTINUING TO 17N40W SUPPORTING A COMPLEX SURFACE SYSTEM WITH A 1013 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 23N27W...A DISSIPATING OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING TO A TRIPLE POINT 1013 MB LOW NEAR 26N18W WHERE A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS S TO 20N18W BECOMING A SHEAR AXIS TO 13N24W. LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS EXCEPT WITHIN 90 NM OF THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC WITH FAIR CONDITIONS TONIGHT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW