000 AXNT20 KNHC 291734 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST SAT JAN 29 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM SIERRA LEONE NEAR 6N10W ALONG 2N20W 1N29W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 29W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 16W AND 20W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 20W AND 34W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER RIDGE IS BUILDING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTING A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY AN 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 26N89W PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF. IN THE W GULF...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM 24N97W TO 19N95W REPRESENTING A COASTAL WIND SHIFT. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. EXPECT THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE E AS THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE TEXAS COAST. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE CARIBBEAN ARE DOMINATED BY WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW WITH MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE. FRESH TRADE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE E AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TURNING SW-WARD W OF 76W. A SHEAR LINE IS ANALYZED FROM 17N78W TO 12N82W DEPICTING AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM NW OF THE LINE CAUSED BY A CONVERGENCE OF WEAKER 15 KT WINDS TO THE NW AND STRONGER 20-25 KT WINDS TO THE SE. AN AREA OF POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS IS AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 61W AND 63W. ANOTHER AREA OF POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS IS AFFECTING SE CUBA FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W CAUSED BY THE DISSIPATING TAIL-END OF A COLD FRONT IN THE W ATLC. TRADEWINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEK. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LONGWAVE MOVING OFF THE EASTERN CONUS SEABOARD SUPPORTS A SERIES OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES ANALYZED ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLC. A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N62W EXTENDING ALONG 27N66W TO 24N72W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO INLAND OVER CUBA NEAR 21N76W. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT IS APPROX 50 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 25N. ALSO...A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS AHEAD OF THESE TWO BOUNDARIES FROM 27N63W TO 20N71W. THE COMBINATION OF THESE BOUNDARIES ARE GENERATING AN AREA OF SCATTER SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 22N BETWEEN 57W AND 65W. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AS THE COLD FRONT OVERTAKES THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY. TO THE E ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PROVIDES FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THIS REGION ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH N OF THE AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE FAR E ATLC SUPPORTING AN OCCLUDED 1012 MB LOW NEAR 24N28W. AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS NORTHWARD AROUND THE NRN SEMICIRCLE TO A TRIPLE POINT WHERE A WARM FRONT AND COLD FRONT MEET NEAR 27N20W. THE WARM FRONT EXTENDS E TO 27N15W. THE COLD FRONT EXTENDS S TO 18N21W. THE CONVECTION SURROUNDING THIS SYSTEM IS FOCUSED FROM 26N-31N E OF 32W. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE TO THE SE WITH WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MONTALVO/GARCIA