000 AXNT20 KNHC 290544 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST SAT JAN 29 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM LIBERIA NEAR 6N10W 2N22W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 35W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 23W-31W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING FROM OVER THE E CONUS INTO THE W ATLC BUT REMAINS OVER THE NE GULF N OF 25N E OF 90W SUPPORTING THE FRONT THAT RECENTLY EXITED THE GULF. AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION EXTENDS AN AXIS ACROSS S MEXICO AND THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE TO INLAND OVER TEXAS NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO AND OVER THE W GULF. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE GULF AND SE CONUS ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 25N93W. DENSE LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN S OF 26N W OF 95W TO INLAND OVER E MEXICO LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO SET UP BY MORNING ACROSS W GULF. THE FLOW WILL INCREASE AND SPREAD TO W OF 91W BY WED AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES SE TEXAS COAST. CARIBBEAN SEA... A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W CARIBBEAN FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS W CUBA NEAR MATANZAS OVER THE ISLE OF YOUTH ALONG 19N86W INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND THE COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR LA CEIBA. THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE CARIBBEAN ARE DOMINATED BY W TO NW FLOW WITH MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT COVERING THE AREA E OF 80W. FRESH TRADE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE E AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH WEAK CYCLONIC TURNING DEPICTED BY A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM E JAMAICA ALONG 16N78W TO 13N78W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM 19N76W ACROSS JAMAICA TO 14N81W. THE TRADE WINDS ARE BANKING BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS INLAND OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM W PANAMA NEAR 82W THROUGH E HONDURAS NEAR 84W AND S OF 17N W OF 84W TO INLAND OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE HONDURAS GUATEMALA AND BELIZE. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND E CARIBBEAN REMARKABLY CLEAR TONIGHT. FRESH TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE E AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH WED. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING INTO THE W ATLC N OF 25N E OF 68W SUPPORTING A RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE W ATLC NEAR 32N68W ALONG 27N74W ACROSS THE BAHAMA ISLANDS INTO THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS W CUBA NEAR MATANZAS. A PRECEDING FRONT ENTERS THE W/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N58W ALONG 26N66W TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 23N74W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BETWEEN THESE FRONTS N OF 25N AND WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE PRECEDING FRONT. SKIES ARE CLEARING W OF THE RE-ENFORCING FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N45W TO 22N55W AND ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH NW OF THE AZORES. AN UPPER LOW IS IN THE E ATLC NEAR 27N26W SUPPORTING A COMPLEX SURFACE SYSTEM WITH A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 26N27W...AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING TO A TRIPLE POINT NEAR 28N23W WHERE A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S ALONG 20N26W THEN DISSIPATES TO 15N36W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE TRIPLE POINT E TO 17N91W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 25N BETWEEN 17W-28W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW