000 AXNT20 KNHC 282339 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST FRI JAN 28 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2300 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM LIBERIA NEAR 5N9W ALONG 2N20W 1N30W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 35W TO 3N45W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS ALONG THE AXIS BESIDES PORTIONS OF COASTAL AND INLAND BRAZIL. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SURFACE RIDING AROUND A 1024 MB HIGH OFF THE COAST OF TEXAS DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING EWD ACROSS THE BASIN. SMALL AREAS OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS REMAIN W OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. MORE WIDESPREAD LOW-LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE ERN COAST OF MEXICO EXTENDING TO ABOUT 90 NM OFFSHORE. CLEAR SKIES ARE NOTED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN AS A STRIP OF DRY AIR ALOFT SINKS OVER THE NRN GULF AROUND THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE ERN CONUS WITH AXIS EXTENDING DOWN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH WITH AXIS UP ERN MEXICO AND TEXAS. THE UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS THE REMAINING PIECES OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED ACROSS S FLORIDA...AND NOW EXTENDS TROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...AS OF 2100 UTC. EXPECT THE SURFACE RIDGE TO GRADUALLY DRIFT EWD ACROSS THE BASIN REACHING FLORIDA BY SUNDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN AREA OF SHOWERS ARE OFFSHORE OF BELIZE AND HONDURAS S OF 18N W OF 85W SUPPORTED BY THE REMAINS OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED SE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND NOW EXTENDS FROM FAR W CUBA AND PARALLELS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SHOWERS ARE ALSO MOVING INLAND ACROSS NICARAGUA AND WITHIN 100 NM OF THE COASTLINE NEAR A SURFACE TROUGH THAT PARALLELS THE COAST. FINALLY AN AREA OF SHOWERS IS APPROACHING JAMAICA FROM 14N-19N BETWEEN 74W-78W NEAR A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NEAR 16N76W. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS EXPERIENCING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DRY STABLE AIR MASS WITH MOSTLY ZONAL WLY FLOW ALOFT. THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE W ATLC AND BROAD LOW PRESSURE ACROSS COLOMBIA IS MAINTAINING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN. EXPECT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SIT ACROSS THE W ATLC SUPPORTING A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS. THE PRIMARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N60W CONTINUING SW TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 24N77W. THE REINFORCING FRONT IS TO THE W ALONG 32N69W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BETWEEN THE TWO BOUNDARIES. A NON-ACTIVE SURFACE TROUGH IS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE SE BAHAMAS TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. FARTHER E...SURFACE RIDGING IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL SYSTEM AND A SECOND FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE E ATLC. THE RIDGE IS CENTERED AROUND A 1028 MB HIGH NEAR 39N39W. THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS SUPPORTING GALE FORCE WINDS N OF 25N E OF 40W. THIS SYSTEM IS ANCHORED BY A 1008 MB OCCLUDED LOW NEAR 27N29W WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING ALONG 25N25W TO 16N33W WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING E FROM 25N25W TO 25N22W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NE OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 25N-31N BETWEEN 19W-30W. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ERN CARIBBEAN TO NEAR 43N37W SUPPORTING THE SURFACE RIDGE WHILE A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 29W SUPPORTS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON