000 AXNT20 KNHC 281135 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST FRI JAN 28 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... FROM 4N2W TO 3N10W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 20W...TO 1S30W TO 3S38W. DISORGANIZED AND ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 7N...MOSTLY BETWEEN 36W AND 52W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOW ENTERS THE AREA... PASSING THROUGH EASTERN TENNESSEE TO ALABAMA TO THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS NEAR 26N88W. LOUISIANA GULF COAST WATERS. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES AROUND A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 26N94W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT GOES FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE BORDER OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND THE LOWER TEXAS GULF COAST...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 27N BETWEEN 82W AND 87W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA. PARTS OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA FROM EASTERN CUBA TO HONDURAS. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...ACROSS WESTERN CUBA...CURVING TO WESTERN HONDURAS NEAR THE GULF OF HONDURAS. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHES OF RAIN COVER THE AREA FROM HONDURAS TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO THE WEST OF 84W...INCLUDING THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF HONDURAS. BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN CLUSTERS...WITH POSSIBLE RAIN...ARE TO THE EAST OF 68W...FROM 13N TO 18N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 17N BETWEEN 80W AND THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM HONDURAS/NICARAGUA TO PANAMA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW FOLLOWS TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONT THAT JUST MOVED THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO A FEW DAYS AGO. THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N59W TO 26N72W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 26N72W...ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...BEYOND WESTERN CUBA INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE COMPARATIVELY GREATEST POSSIBILITY FOR RAINSHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS FROM 25N TO 29N BETWEEN 68W AND 74W...AND FROM 27N TO 29N BETWEEN 57W AND 61W. OTHER CLOUDS COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 24N BETWEEN 55W AND 77W IN THE BAHAMAS. A SECOND SHOT OF COLD AIR...AS A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT...ENTERS THE AREA PASSING THROUGH 32N76W TO 30N81W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE WITHIN 130 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 32N70W 29N75W 27N82W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 26N32W. CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 18N TO 33N BETWEEN 24W AND 40W. A SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE 26N32W CYCLONIC CENTER. A 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 28N33W. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 29N BETWEEN 35W AND 39W WITH SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 15 FEET TO 20 FEET IN NORTHERLY SWELL. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURVES FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 30N31W 25N29W 19N32W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND RAINSHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 23N TO 32N BETWEEN 24W AND 36W. A REMNANT CLOUD LINE CONTINUES FROM 19N32W TO 16N43W 22N54W 30N58W. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE CLOUD LINE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT