000 AXNT20 KNHC 280603 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST FRI JAN 28 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... FROM SOUTHERN LIBERIA TO 2N16W 5N28W 4N45W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR THE EQUATOR ALONG 52W. DISORGANIZED AND ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 52W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE MAIN DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT WAS SUPPORTING THE LAST COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO AT LEAST TWO DAYS AGO OR SO HAS MOVED NORTHEASTWARD AND OUT OF THE AREA. A SECOND MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOW ENTERS THE AREA...PASSING THROUGH TENNESSEE TO THE LOUISIANA GULF COAST WATERS. THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW ELSEWHERE IS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES AROUND A 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N95W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST OF 26N95W 20N91W. RAIN IS POSSIBLE FROM 24N TO 29N BETWEEN THE FLORIDA WEST COAST AND 85W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA. PARTS OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA FROM EASTERN CUBA TO HONDURAS. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...ACROSS WESTERN CUBA...CURVING TO WESTERN HONDURAS NEAR THE GULF OF HONDURAS. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN COVER THE AREA FROM HONDURAS TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO THE WEST OF 84W...INCLUDING THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF HONDURAS. BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN CLUSTERS...WITH POSSIBLE RAIN...ARE TO THE EAST OF 67W...FROM 13N TO 18N BETWEEN 70W AND 75W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 17N BETWEEN 78W AND THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM HONDURAS/NICARAGUA TO PANAMA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW FOLLOWS TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONT THAT JUST MOVED THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO A FEW DAYS AGO. THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N60W TO 26N70W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 26N70W...ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...BEYOND WESTERN CUBA INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. RAINSHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 24N BETWEEN 55W AND 77W IN THE BAHAMAS. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 27N34W. CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 18N TO 33N BETWEEN 24W AND 46W. A SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE THAT SHOWS UP WELL IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 31N36W. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 35W AND 40W WITH SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 12 FEET TO 18 FEET IN NORTHERLY AND NORTHWESTERLY SWELL. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURVES FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 27N30W AND 19N37W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND RAINSHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 22N TO 34N BETWEEN 24W AND 37W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT