000 AXNT20 KNHC 272339 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST THU JAN 27 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2300 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM LIBERIA NEAR 6N9W ALONG 2N17W 3N32W EQ43W EQ51W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN 11W-15W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 20W-32W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 42W-51W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SURFACE RIDING AROUND A 1026 MB HIGH OVER SE TEXAS DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING EWD ACROSS THE BASIN. AREAS OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND ERN GULF AS COOLER AIR RUNS OVER THE WARMER WATER. MORE WIDESPREAD LOW-LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE ERN COAST OF MEXICO AS WINDS ARE BANKING AGAINST THE COASTLINE FORMING A COASTAL TROUGH ABOUT 100 NM OFFSHORE. CLEAR SKIES ARE NOTED OVER THE FAR NW GULF AS A NARROW STRIP OF DRY AIR ALOFT MOVES SWD AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH N OF THE AREA. MAINLY ZONAL WLY FLOW IS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN BRINGING MODERATE MOISTURE ALOFT WHICH IS ATTRIBUTED TO SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT THE SURFACE RIDGE TO GRADUALLY DRIFT EWD ACROSS THE BASIN REACHING FLORIDA BY SUNDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO SIT OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDING ACROSS WRN CUBA AND PARALLELING THE ERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS EXPERIENCING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. MINOR UPPER TROUGHING IS NOTED FROM ERN CUBA TO HONDURAS SUPPORTING THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE W ATLC AND STATIONARY LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NRN COLOMBIA IS MAINTAINING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN. A FEW AREAS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARE EMBEDDED WITH THE NE FLOW SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM N OF VENEZUELA TO S OF HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 68W-71W...AND E OF NICARAGUA FROM 13N-17N W OF 78W. EXPECT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SIT ACROSS THE W ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N63W CONTINUING SW TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 25N76W WHERE IT CONTINUES AS A STATIONARY FRONT TO CUBA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT E OF 70W...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE REMINDER OF THE FRONT. A NON-ACTIVE SURFACE TROUGH IS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE SE BAHAMAS TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. FARTHER E...SURFACE RIDGING IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL SYSTEM AND A SECOND FRONTAL SYSTEM ANCHORED BY A 1007 MB LOW NEAR 31N34W. THE RIDGE IS CENTERED AROUND A 1028 MB HIGH NEAR 35N46W. THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS SUPPORTING GALE FORCE WINDS N OF 28N E OF 40W TO A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW CENTER ALONG 26N33W 21N39W AND DISSIPATING TO 20N49W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 21N BETWEEN 27W-31W. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NRN LEEWARD ISLANDS TO NEAR 50N43W SUPPORTING THE SURFACE RIDGE WHILE A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 34W SUPPORTS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON