000
AXNT20 KNHC 270611 CCA
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...COR
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
105 AM EST THU JAN 27 2011

CORRECTION TO UPDATE THE CARIBBEAN SEA SECTION
AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SECTION

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM SOUTHERN LIBERIA TO 4N14W 4N27W 2N40W...CROSSING THE 
EQUATOR ALONG 50W...AND THEN TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 52W IN
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL. SCATTERED STRONG RAINSHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 3N TO 6N BETWEEN 15W AND 20W...AND 
FROM 2N TO 5N BETWEEN 24W AND 29W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS 
TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 
6N. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS WITHIN 120 NM TO
180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE FROM 5N35W TO 11N26W BEYOND
17N16W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE COLD FRONT FROM THE LAST 12 HOURS TO 24 HOURS HAS EXITED THE 
AREA COMPLETELY. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM 
THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...NEAR 20N110W...ACROSS MEXICO...INTO
TEXAS AND BEYOND...AT LEAST CROSSING 90W. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE 
COVERS THE AREA...NOW THAT THE COLD FRONT HAS LEFT FOR GOOD.
WHATEVER IS LEFT FROM THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALSO IS TRANSLATING
NORTHEASTWARD...FOLLOWED BY THE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW FROM
MEXICO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA. THE 
SOUTHERN END OF THE COLD FRONT THAT JUST PASSED THROUGH THE
GULF OF MEXICO CROSSES WESTERN CUBA...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA TO 19N86W. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY FROM
19N86W...UNTIL THE COAST OF HONDURAS BETWEEN 87W AND 88W.
BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE MOSTLY
IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. BROKEN LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS IN CLUSTERS...WITH POSSIBLE RAIN...ARE TO THE
SOUTH OF 18N BETWEEN 60W AND 68W...FROM 15N TO 19N BETWEEN
70W AND 78W...AND FROM 13N TO 18N BETWEEN 80W AND 87W
INCLUDING IN NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONT 
THAT JUST MOVED THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO 24 HOURS AGO NOW
IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD. THE TROUGH IS PUSHING THE COLD FRONT
TO A POSITION THAT IS NOW IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...PASSING
THROUGH 32N72W TO ABACO ISLAND IN THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...ON TOP 
OF THE BERRY ISLANDS...INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS...AND BEYOND 
WESTERN CUBA INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 15 NM TO 30 NM 
ON EITHER SIDE OF 23N80W 27N73W BEYOND 31N67W. THE NEXT DEEP 
LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N39W TO 20N40W. IT SUPPORTS
A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N36W. A COLD FRONT 
EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 25N40W...AND CURVING TO 22N50W.
THE FRONT DISSIPATES FROM 22N50W TO 22N57W. ANY PRECIPITATION
THAT IS RELATED TO THIS FRONT IS TO THE NORTH OF 24N BETWEEN
30W AND 40W. RAIN IS POSSIBLE FROM 20N TO 25N BETWEEN 39W AND
60W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N54W TO 25N63W TO THE 
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS OF THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. AN UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH IS ALONG 17W THROUGH 32N TO 23N. BROAD SURFACE CYCLONIC 
FLOW MOVES AROUND A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N12W TO 
30N18W...AND A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 33N7W TO 28N13W TO 26N21W.
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN THE
PRIME MERIDIAN AND 20W.
 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT