000
AXNT20 KNHC 270511
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
105 AM EST THU JAN 27 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM SOUTHERN LIBERIA TO 4N14W 4N27W 2N40W...CROSSING THE 
EQUATOR ALONG 50W...AND THEN TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 52W IN
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL. SCATTERED STRONG RAINSHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 3N TO 6N BETWEEN 15W AND 20W...AND 
FROM 2N TO 5N BETWEEN 24W AND 29W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS 
TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 
6N. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS WITHIN 120 NM TO
180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE FROM 5N35W TO 11N26W BEYOND
17N16W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE COLD FRONT FROM THE LAST 12 HOURS TO 24 HOURS HAS EXITED THE 
AREA COMPLETELY. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM 
THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...NEAR 20N110W...ACROSS MEXICO...INTO
TEXAS AND BEYOND...AT LEAST CROSSING 90W. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE 
COVERS THE AREA...NOW THAT THE COLD FRONT HAS LEFT FOR GOOD.
WHATEVER IS LEFT FROM THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALSO IS TRANSLATING
NORTHEASTWARD...FOLLOWED BY THE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW FROM
MEXICO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA. BROKEN
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN CLUSTERS...WITH POSSIBLE RAIN... ARE
TO THE SOUTH OF 20N62W 16N17W 20N78W AND TO THE EAST OF
21N81W 16N84W. THESE CLOUDS ARE MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AND 
WEST-NORTHWEST. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS ALONG 21N 
BETWEEN 60W AND 75W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO THE NORTH OF
THE GREATER ANTILLES.  

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN DEEP LAYER TROUGH SUPPORTS THE
COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N40W 26N45W TO 23N55W.
A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CURVES FROM 23N55W TO 
21N66W...CURVING TO 22N75W NEAR ACKLINS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS.  
RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM TO 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N36W 29N39W 26N44W. BROKEN TO 
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAIN ARE WITHIN
60 NM TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 26N44W 24N52W 23N60W 22N69W.
GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 29N 
BETWEEN 75W AND 78W...WITH SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 FEET TO
11 FEET. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC 
OCEAN TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AROUND
A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 34N57W. AN UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N11W 25N30W 15N43W. A 990 MB LOW 
PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 34N13W. A COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY PASSES 
THROUGH 32N10W...TO JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CANARY ISLANDS.
ANY PRECIPITATION THAT MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW CENTER 
AND TROUGH IS TO THE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 24W.
A SECOND LOW PRESSURE CENTER MAY BE FORMING NEAR 31N21W...
WITH AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH THAT CURVES FROM THE LOW CENTER
TO 29N24W AND BEYOND 32N28W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT